Welcome to this years SpoilerTV Cancellation Predictor
Last year, each week, we updated our data (see the notes below about how we get our data) in order to see if we could predict which show(s) would be renewed or cancelled. As you can see from last years summary, we did pretty well. We're hoping this year to make it even more accurate.
This index is by no means a 100% accurate guide about if your show is safe or in danger and should be seen as a bit of FUN.
NOTE: Until we have at least 3-4 weeks of data for each show that this table is not going to be very accurate and it will vary a lot each update. We'll try to update the full Cancellation Table every couple of days as we get new data in.
Last Updated: 20th May 2016 With only the fate of The X-Files still unknown (and this is not likely to be officially known for quite some time), the table is almost complete. We will still be updating with the ratings for the last few remaining episodes of the shows still airing.
All in all another very successful year for our prediction calculations. Some key notes
- It's getting harder to predict CW renewals each year as most shows are very low rated and syndication/netflix deals has a bigger factor than actual ratings.
- Containment was the best show in terms of our calculation to actually get cancelled
- Mike and Molly was the best show to end in terms of ratings index.
- Out of the currently possible 49 predicted to be renewed, 47 were actually renewed. Only Containment and Angel from Hell let us down. Although Angel from Hell was only 0.03 off :)
- The top 15 shows predicted to be cancelled, were actually cancelled
- Out of the 29 shows in the Likely to be cancelled section, 24 turned out to be cancelled
- There were 19 shows in the In Danger category, 4 of those shows were cancelled.
1) The Higher the Index Rating number the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety.
2) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate.
3) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC. And only for the main TV Season ie we don't cover Summer Shows.
4) This chart is a prediction of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers, 18-49, and + 7 Numbers. These 3 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 and +3 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents, Nielsen Online Ratings etc.
5) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg A show might be in it's final season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expired. An example might be Supernatural if it’s two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc
6) Remember Ratings are relative to ratings for other shows on the same network.
7) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue
8) Shows with an Index over 5 are likely to be cancelled, 3-5 - in danger and less than 3 safe. Although shows nearer 3 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.
9) You can access this page via either the Start or Features Menu above or simply by Bookmarking it.
Here is a direct link to the full spreadsheet.
If you have any questions/suggestions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.