Welcome to this years SpoilerTV Cancellation Predictor
Last year, each week, we updated our data (see the notes below about how we get our data) in order to see if we could predict which show(s) would be renewed or cancelled. As you can see from last years summary, we did pretty well. We're hoping this year to make it even more accurate.
This index is by no means a 100% accurate guide about if your show is safe or in danger and should be seen as a bit of FUN.
NOTE: Until we have at least 3-4 weeks of data for each show that this table is not going to be very accurate and it will vary a lot each update. We'll try to update the full Cancellation Table every couple of days as we get new data in.
Last Updated: 5th May 2015 - Includes Final numbers up to and including 1st May 2015.
Recent Main changes
5th May - The Simpsons Renewal added
29th April - Revenge Cancellation added
11th March - Mike and Molly / Mom Renewals added
6th March - Allegiance Cancellation added
3rd March - Secrets and Lies, Battle Creek and The Last Man on Earth added to Table.
27th February - HTGAWM Renewal added
5th February - NBC Renewals added
18th January - FOX Renewals added
12th January - CBS Renewals Added
11th January - CW Renewals Added
27th November - Red Band Society mark as cancelled
23rd November - Members Only marked as cancelled
15th November - The Millers marked as cancelled
7th November - Selfie marked as cancelled
31st October - A to Z and Bad Judge cancelled
25th October - Manhattan Love Story cancelled [LINK]
12th October - Includes the recent ABC Adjusted Numbers.
11th October - Includes Final numbers up to and including Thursday 9th October.
24th September - First Update now that we have some data in.
24th August - Hieroglyph and Emerald City marked as Cancelled.
14th August - Table Created
1) The Higher the Index Rating number the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety.
2) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate.
3) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC. And only for the main TV Season ie we don't cover Summer Shows.
4) This chart is a prediction of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers, 18-49, and + 7 Numbers. These 3 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 and +3 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents, Nielsen Online Ratings etc.
5) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg Parenthood is in it's final season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expired. An example might be Supernatural if it’s two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc
6) Remember Ratings are relative to ratings for other shows on the same network.
7) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue
8) Shows with an Index over 2.70 are likely to be cancelled, 2.40-2.70 - in danger and less that 2.40 safe. Although shows nearer 2.40 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.
9) You can access this page via either the Start or Features Menu above or simply by Bookmarking it.
Here is a direct link to the full spreadsheet.
If you have any questions/suggestions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.