Update: 21st May For those asking me, although the predictions part is over, the table is still being updated based on the ratings that are still coming in.
Update: 12th May - Final Thoughts Well another season Renewals and Cancellations has come and gone. I hope that not too many of your favourites were cancelled.
Overall we're very happy with the accuracy of our Predictions again. Here are some highlights.
- Every show we had as "Looking Safe" was renewed.
- Out of 35 Shows we had as "Likely to be Cancelled", 31 were cancelled. 1 of those, Glee, has already been renewed before the season stared. The other big shock was BATB getting renewed. Not many TV sites had predicted that.
- We had 21 shows in the "In Danger" section. 8 of those were cancelled.
See you all soon for the 2014/15 Cancellation Predictor Table!
Last year, each week, we updated our data (see the notes below about how we get our data) in order to see if we could predict which show(s) would be renewed or cancelled. As you can see from last years summary, we did pretty well.
This index is by no means a 100% accurate guide about if your show is safe or in danger and should be seen as a bit of FUN.
NOTE: Until we have at least 3-4 weeks of data for each show that this table is not going to be very accurate and it will vary a lot each update. We'll try to update the full Cancellation Table every couple of days as we get new data in.
Recent Main changes
Added all the CBS Renewals and Cancellations.
Added all the NBC Renewals and Cancellations.
Added all the ABC Renewals and Cancellations.
Added all the CW Renewals and Cancellations.
Rake, Enlisted, Dads and Surviving Jack all marked as Cancelled
Law and Order:SVU marked as renewed.
Almost Human marked as Cancelled
Black Box and Bad Teacher added to table
Surviving Jack added to table
Mind Games marked as Cancelled
The 100 added to table
Grimm, Chicago Fire and Chicago PD marked as Renewed
Crisis added to table
CBS Renewals updated in table
Believe added to table
Resurrection added to table
Raising Hope marked as Cancelled
The Following, New Girl, B99 and The Mindy Project now marked as Renewed
Hannibal added to Table
Mixology added to Table
Mind Games added to Table
About A Boy and Growing Up Fisher Added to Table
Star-Crossed added to table
Arrow, Reign, Supernatural, The Originals and Vampire Diaries now marked as Renewed
The Michael J Fox is now cancelled
Bones marked as renewed
Sean Saves the World is now cancelled
Rake added to Table
The Following added to Table
Suburgatory added to Table
The Table is now embedded into this document as opposed to a separate graphic.
Enlisted added to table
The Assets is now cancelled
Chicago PD added to table
Killer Women and Intelligence added to table.
1) The Higher the Index Rating number the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety.
2) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate.
3) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC.
4) This chart is a prediction of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers, 18-49, and + 7 Numbers. These 3 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 and +3 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents, Nielsen Online Ratings etc.
5) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg HIMYM is in it's finale season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expired. An example might be Supernatural if it’s two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc
6) Remember Ratings are relative to ratings for other shows on the same network.
7) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue
8) Shows with an Index over 2.70 are likely to be cancelled, 2.40-2.70 - in danger and less that 2.40 safe. Although shows nearer 2.40 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.
9) You can access this page via either the Start or Features Menu above or simply by Bookmarking it.
Here is a direct link to the full spreadsheet.
If you have any questions/suggestions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.