Update: 11th May Wow, crazy day yesterday with the huge number of cancellations/renewals. The table has been updated and we're just waiting on the fate of Hannibal before we finish another season of the Cancellation predictor table.
Overall I'm very pleased with the results as you can see.
- The top 29 shows predicted to be cancelled, were cancelled.
- The top 28 shows predicted to be renewed, were renewed.
Biggest shocks of the season for me.
- Carrie Diaries getting renewed
- How to Live With Your Parents getting cancelled (it's ratings were better than a number of other ABC shows)
Hope you have enjoyed following along with us here and we'll have a new Cancellation Prediction Table up and running for the 2013/14 season in a few months.
Update: 10th May Updated with all the recent Renewals and Cancellations.
Update: 19th April Glee marked as Renewed
Update: 10th April Cult now marked as Cancelled
Update: 4th April How to Live With Your Parents added to the table.
Last Main Update: 27th March With Today's CBS Renewals the tables have been updated.
Update: 20th March With Today's Announcement that CSI: Las Vegas will be renewed the table has been updated.
Update: 14th March With Yesterdays effective Cancellation of Smash, we've updated the table to reflect this.
Update: 5th March Tables updated with the FOX Renewals from Yesterday. Also Red Widow has been added to the table.
Update: 1st March 90210 marked as cancelled.
Update: 27th Feb Golden Boy added to Table
Update: 21st Feb Cult and Body of Proof added to table.
Update: 11th Feb Touch added to the Table. Supernatural, Arrow and TVD all marked as Renewed :)
Update: 8th Feb Community added to the Table and Do No Harm marked as cancelled.
Update: 6th Feb Smash is entered into the charts and is already in the Likely to be Cancelled section.
Update: 1st Feb Do No Harm enters straight into the Likely to be Cancelled Zone. NCIS marked as Renewed.
Update 23rd JanNow Includes the latest ratings info and the Cancellation of Ben and Kate
Update: 23rd Jan Update now includes the cancellation of Don't Trust the Bitch and The Following.
Update: 16th Jan NOTE: This update contains all ratings up to and including Monday 14th Jan. It now includes Deception and Carrie Diaries
Update: 8th Jan Deception added to the table.
Update: 8th Jan Bones added as a Renewal.
Update: 18th Dec 1600 Penn enters the table with mediocre ratings.
Update: 11th Dec We are now using the update Final Adjusted Numbers for the calculations which should make the chart a little more precise. The table will be updated each day once the previous adjusted numbers have been released.
Update: 29th November Emily Owens and Mob Doctor now marked as Cancelled.
Update: 15th November 2012 Whitney enters the table and goes straight into the "In Danger Zone".
Update: 31st October We've done some tweaks to our calculations and also changed the cut-off points for Likely to be Cancelled from 3+ to 2.75+
Update: 19th Oct Animal Practice added to Cancelled Column
Update: 17th Oct Bob's Burgers added to Renewed column
Update: 13th Oct Next Caller added as Cancelled before it even aired :)
Update: 11th Oct Yesterday saw our first casualty of the Season with Made in Jersey being Cancelled.
Last year, each week, we updated our data (see the notes below about how we get our data) in order to see if we could predict which show(s) would be renewed or cancelled. As you can see from last years summary, we did pretty well, with the exception of Fringe, Whitney, and Terra Nova our table was pretty accurate. The top 14 shows predicated to be cancelled were indeed cancelled.
This index is by no means a 100% accurate guide about if your show is safe or in danger and should be seen as a bit of FUN.
NOTE: Until we have at least 3-4 weeks of data for each show that this table is not going to be very accurate and it will vary a lot each update. We'll try to update the full Cancellation Table every couple of days as we get new data in.
1) The Higher the Index Rating the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety.
2) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate.
3) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC.
4) This chart is a prediction of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers, 18-49, and + 7 Numbers. These 3 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents etc.
5) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg Fringe is in it's finale season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expired. An example might be Supernatural if it’s two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc
6) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue
7) Shows with an Index over 2.75 are likely to be cancelled, 2.50-2.75 - in danger and less that 2.50 safe. Although shows nearer 2.50 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.
8) You can access this page via either the Start or Features Menu above or simply by Bookmarking it.
If you have any questions/suggestions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.