It's been a while since we've done of these. With the Winter Olympics ahead of us and few broadcast shows daring to go with originals for the next could of weeks, I thought it was a good point to check on the status of our shows. I will start by briefly talking about all the midseason entries which I didn't get a chance to talk about back when I did this in December and then I will summarize the main changes in predictions since we've last spoken.
A Look at the Midseason Entries
Because I am doing this all at once and not network by network, I will just leave here the most recent averages for each category so that you can interpret the relative values for each show:
- CBS Comedy: 2.80
- CBS Drama: 1.90
- ABC Drama: 1.80
- ABC Comedy: 1.80
- FOX Drama: 1.80
- NBC Drama: 1.70
- FOX Comedy: 1.30
- NBC Comedy: 1.00
- CW Drama: 0.70
- Chicago PD
Production Company: NBC
Ratings Average: 1.70 (100%)
Production Company: Not ABC
Ratings Average: 1.60 (90%)
Production Company: NBC (yes, and others, but NBC is also part of it unlike popular opinion)
Ratings Average: 1.10 (110% of NBC Comedies, 70% of NBC scripted shows)
- The Following
Production Company: Not FOX
Ratings Average: 2.00 (110%)
Production Company: FOX
Ratings Average: 1.00 (75% of FOX comedy average, 65% of FOX overall scripted average)
Production Company: Not FOX
Ratings Average: 1.20 (65%)
Production Company: CBS
Ratings Average: 1.50 (80%)
- Killer Women
Production Company: ABC
Ratings Average: 0.70 (40%)
Changes since December
As the season progresses and we get more data points as well as information about the performance of more midseason shows, the situations of most shows get more clear and, as such, I am able to adjust my predictions. These changes include moving shows that were once "To be determined" to Tier 2 (likely renewal) or Tier 4 (likely cancellation), as well as upgrading or downgrading shows from likely to certain (from Tier 4 to Tier 5 and from Tier 2 to Tier 1). Here are some highlights:
- Grey's Anatomy was previously on the Tier 2 out of conservatism since there was a tiny possibility that costs were too large to bring back the show. However, not only have the show's relative ratings improved since then, but most importantly, the shows' main pair has resigned for two more seasons, leaving no doubt about its return. It's certain to be renewed now.
- Castle has kept its ratings well above the network average (its ratings are the same as they were at the beginning of the season while mostly everything else is down) and is likely ABC's best source of syndication income. It's certain to come back.
- Agents of Shield may have disapoiting ratings for some but it's a new show performing at 130% with no lead-in against the highet rated drama on television. It's certain to be renewed and those saying it's a pity renewal are folling themselves!
- Revenge has not only improved its relative ratings, now performing at 90% of ABC's drama average, but has done so airing against the big awards shows on Sundays. While I think it could be wise to wait for some 10pm airings before moving it, the syndication argument on top of some very strong 90% performance are enough for me. It's certain to be renewed!
- The Goldbergs, which I had already called ABC's most successful sitcom back then, has been able to capitalize from the absence of The Voice and showed promise on multiple occasions. I said when I wrote my initial article on it that I would move it to stabilize around the 80%-90% level and that is exactly what the show has done, currently performing at 90% of ABC's comedy average. While I don't think this result is amazing, especially considering the show is a freshman and not ABC produced, I think it's good enough seeing how everything else is crumbling, so I am saying likely renewal for now!
- I've elaborated before on how I thought we were heading for a The Good Wife vs. Blue Bloods situation if Intelligence succeeded. A lot of stuff has happened since then. For starters, Intelligence flopped hard, which were the best news each show should have gotten! Could CBS still cancel one of them? Maybe. But if they cancel The Mentalist and Intelligence, they could already premiere 2 new dramas then, and I also think we're getting to a point in which cancelling the 4th comedy hour may be better for them than to can another drama if they want to premiere a 3rd new drama which is, by itself, a pretty big if! On top of all that, they always have the possibility of holding Undercover Boss to when a show flops (they certainly could have used it this year with the whole Hostages/Intelligence situation), which would also open room for a 3rd new drama. Bottom line: yes, CBS could still cancel another one out of Blue Bloods/The Good Wife, but the likelihood of that happening is small enough that I feel comfortable placing both as likely renewal. On top of that, Blue Bloods has also scored a syndication deal and the show is also quietly having one of its best seasons in terms of year to year comparisons, now performing at 100% of CBS's drama average, both of which have me inclined to even move it to certain renewal. I am leaving both shows on Tier 2 for now though, but in any case, both Blue Bloods and The Good Wife are now likely to be renewed!
- Hawaii Five-0 and it huge syndication deal already had it as likely renewal back in the fall when the show was posting very solid ratings for Friday. With the show now posting excellent Friday ratings (now performing at 105% of CBS's drama average) and with the 100 episodes threshold still to come, I've moved to show to a certain renewal!
- Elementary, already a likely renewal in the fall, has improved its relative ratings a bit ever since Scandal went off the air and, most importantly, has scored an incredible syndication deal that make next season a sure thing. The show is now certain to be renewed.
- The Crazy Ones is now the worst performing CBS comedy. Considering the show is currently airing against no competition, that it has a decently rated lead-in and that its consistently outperformed by its lead-out, I think there are few excuses that we can make here. In a way, the show probably had an uphill battle since the beginning, since how it was always the odd man out, hence having more to prove. I could probably keep the show on the bubble for a little while longer, since it's not totally over for it, but I think the turnaroud it would require at this point is just not likely, so I am saying a likely cancellation.
- The Tomorrow People is performing on Wednesdays at a level that I doubt would give the CW much incentive to bring it back. However, that's not even half of its problem. I suppose it would have a chance if it were to keep doing what it's doing until the end of the season. But the show is moving to Mondays soon and I have very few doubts that it will not be able to keep its numbers there once moved (there is probably no other show as much compatible with it as Arrow). On top of that, I even have doubts about said numbers being enough for a renewal to begin with! The CW is certain to renew one out of Reign, The Tomorrow People, The 100 and Star Crossed, possibly two (but they don't even need to do two) and, for now, I cannot imagine how TTP will be the chosen one. The show is a likely cancellation!
- Parks and Recreation has, as predicted, improved its relative ratings once paired up with Community and moved to 8h30 away from The Big Bang Theory! Performing at 75% of the network's scripted average is not brilliant at all, but considering that means the show is performing at 120% of NBC comedy average, I gotta think it will be enough for, at the very least, a spackle order for spring. The show is a likely renewal now!
- Dracula's relative rating got worse as the season progressed. Even though a lot of people were calling it dead ever since its third week, I advised caution considering how the show was an international co production that would likely have different ratings requirements to be profitable, much like what happened with Hannibal last year. However, I think the absolute ratings got too low for NBC to need to do this, especially considering that a second hour of Dateline would likely do better and be even cheaper. I still thin the 65% can be enough to bring it back due to it being a co production, but I think that as far as a renewal for regular season is concerned, that is now unlikely. For that reason, I am saying the show is now likely to be cancelled!
This leaves our bubble section with exactly 11 shows! Some are shows for which I need to see some more data points (ex. Mom) but I am already leaning towards one way. Others are shows that depend on how spring shows do (ex. Reign). Others are true bubble shows for which making a prediction will be a pain (ex. Two and a Half Men). Regardless, I will be making predictions for all of them at one point, even if I leave them as Tier 3, you will get an indication of which is the direction I expect it to go.
Thanks for reading!
ABC Fantasy Schedule
State of CBS and NBC Comedies
State of ABC and FOX Comedies
State of FOX and NBC Dramas
State of CW Dramas
State of CBS Dramas
State of ABC Dramas
Renewals and Cancellations Decisions and TV Numbers 101 [FAQ]