It's less than 72 hours before the official beginning of the 2013 - 2014 US television season, a fact which will delight television fans in the US and around the world. There's a lot of interesting scheduling decisions that networks have made, so how will these decisions play out in terms of the all-important ratings and audience numbers? Lets have a quick look through the schedule.
Monday sees the return of the usual 2 hour live series on ABC and NBC, in the form of Dancing With The Stars and The Voice respectively. DWTS kicked off last Monday to ratings 28% higher than the premiere the same time last year, though it didn't have The Voice to compete against, which won't be the case come this Monday. The Voice always dominated ratings between the two last season, but DWTS had a few million more viewers. I'd expect to see the same again, though the ratings gap may have closed a little if DWTS remains up on last year.
FOX got its Monday schedule underway last week, with the ninth season premiere of Bones, and the series premiere of Sleepy Hollow combining to complete its 2 hours of primetime. Bones' 2.3 rating equaled last season's premiere rating, and the audience was only marginally down. Sleepy Hollow debuted to a massive 3.5 rating and 10.10 million viewers - miles ahead of last season's failed timeslot occupier The Mob Doctor. This is great news for FOX, they will be hoping the pressure from the other networks' shows doesn't squeeze them out like last season.
Monday nights see more freshman shows than any other night for CBS this season, though the genre remains mostly comedy, with How I Met Your Mother and and 2 Broke Girls returning at 8pm and 9pm respectively, and 2 new comedies, We Are Men, and Mom, occupy the 8:30pm and 9:30pm timeslots respectively. We Are Men holds its premiere off a week though, premiering September 30. It's hard to say how these new comedies will perform, but scheduling them in between its well known returning comedies instead of back-to-back is a smart move.
The 10pm timeslot sees some serious competition this season, and it's the timeslot I'll probably be keeping the closest eye on. ABC's second longest running drama, Castle, returns for its sixth season, alongside 2 freshman thriller dramas from CBS and NBC. CBS's Hostages has been poorly promoted, which I believe will cost ratings early, but the shortened season format is attractive, and will allow for a high speed series. You can read my review of the pilot here. It replaces Hawaii Five-0, which has moved to a new timeslot on a new night. NBC's The Blacklist replaces Revolution, which has also shifted nights. More on that later, but expect Castle to be strong early on with the events of last season's finale to be continued this Monday. On the back of a stronger performing Dancing With The Stars, ratings and audience may even rise on last season. The Blacklist will endeavour to capitalise on The Voice's lead-in audience, and the return of James Spader to television will be a massive drawcard. I'd expect The Blacklist to win the timeslot in both ratings and audience, but Castle may edge ahead as the premiere boost wears off. Hostages will probably be the least viewed, but a well known cast will have an impact. It's tough to predict!
Tuesday nights are a mixed bag among the networks. ABC brings an all-new lineup, with the absence of the Dancing With The Stars Results Show freeing up an hour of primetime this season, while CBS's top three dramas bring a combined 16 previous seasons to the table.
The much hyped Agents of SHIELD kicks off ABC's Tuesday lineup, followed by The Goldbergs and The Trophy Wife which share half an hour, leaving Lucky 7 to round out the night at 10pm. It's a foregone conclusion that Agents of SHIELD will be the most popular of the lot because of the buzz it's generated, but there's nothing much about the remaining three that takes my fancy, however Lucky 7 must either be very very good, or the executives have poor taste, because its concept doesn't appeal to me in the slightest.
CBS's NCIS and NCIS: Los Angeles return for their 11th and 5th seasons respectively, with the heavily criticised departure of Cote De Pablo ensuring NCIS has remained in the news through the summer months. I'm expecting a pretty large audience turnout for the premiere as a result. At 10pm, my personal favorite series, Person of Interest, begins season 3 after moving in from the Thursdays 9pm timeslot. I have to say I found this scheduling decision rather odd because POI is capable of holding its own ratings and audience without a significant lead-in such as NCIS: LA, but this move will definitely increase the chances of renewal for a fourth season. The last 3 episodes of last season all equaled series low ratings, but given the recent Snowden and NSA allegations, POI is in a perfect position to capitalise. There are also 2 new series regular cast members to up the action as well.
Over on FOX, two freshman comedies in the form of Dads and Brooklyn Nine-Nine, take half an hour each from 8pm, and lead in returning comedies New Girl and The Mindy Project. Like FOX's Monday shows, all four comedies premiered last Monday, with ratings varying between 1.9 and 2.9, with the two freshman comedies taking the #1 and #2 spots between all four. This is a good sign initially for them, but when NCIS kicks off on Tuesday, things may change a bit. NBC has a rather uneventful night, with The Biggest Loser and The Voice Results Show occupying the first 2 hours, and sophomore drama Chicago Fire returning at 10pm. I don't know how Chicago Fire managed to earn a renewal, but that's for another discussion, but I wouldn't have high hopes for its ratings again this season.
Wednesday sees a new show premiering for each network except CBS, with ABC bringing two new series to the table. FOX fills up its 2 hours of primetime with a new season of The X Factor, and NBC's Revolution moves to its new 8pm timeslot - a move I find curious seeing NBC were so intent on ensuring Revolution had the network's best lead-in, in the form of The Voice, that they reduced the season length and inserted a gigantic 17 week midseason gap. It's hard to tell how well the series will rate in its new timeslot, and there will be the typical debate of whether the violent content Revolution has in it is suitable for early evening television. Either way, this season will make or break the show. Meanwhile, at 9pm, another season of Law & Order: SVU launches at 9pm, and leads in NBC's remake of the 1960's crime drama, Ironside, which premieres the following Wednesday.
CBS maintains the same Wednesday schedule it had last season, with the 27th season of Survivor opening its night at 8pm. A ninth season of Criminal Minds follows on, and leads in the fourteenth season of CSI. If last season is anything to go by, all these shows will be pretty stable week to week.
ABC's primarily comedy night consists of 5 shows, with The Middle returning at 8pm for a fourth season, leading in freshman sitcom Back In The Game at 8:30pm. The Middle saw a lot of fluctuation in ratings last season, but should be strong enough to lead in Back In The Game. At 9pm, ABC's highest rating series Modern Family returns for a fifth season, and will lead in freshman Rebel Wilson led sitcom Super Fun Night - a show critics don't have much good to say about. Sophomore musical drama Nashville rounds out the night, and its fans will be hoping for a lift in ratings, because the last 10 episodes of the first season didn't equal or break the 2.0 rating mark.
It's a night of variety on Thursday, with ABC's strongest drama night of the week, and CBS's strongest comedy night of the week. FOX begins its night with The X Factor Results Show, which leads in the fifth and second-last season of musical comedy-drama Glee, with Cory Monteith no longer a member of the series following his death a few months back. Glee season premieres typically rate and ratings are reasonable the first few weeks, but then they away, and this trend may continue this season as well.
CBS kicks off its comedy line-up with ratings juggernaut The Big Bang Theory. Freshman series The Millers and The Crazy Ones take half an hour consecutively, and should be helped along nicely by the lead-in audience The Big Bang Theory will provide. The 9:30pm timeslot is occupied by the 11th season of Two and a Half Men, which held the 8:30pm timeslot last season. It's worth noting the absence of Person of Interest which has shifted to Tuesdays, and led in another of my CBS favorites, the now sophomore drama, Elementary, which remains at 10pm. Elementary maintained a consistent rating and audience throughout the first two thirds of the season before tailing off to a season finale 1.1 ratings points below the series premiere. The effect the switch of lead-in genre from drama (Person of Interest) to comedy (Two and a Half Men) is something I'll be watching closely.
ABC has a pretty good night in store for drama fans, and those who follow Once Upon A Time will be keeping a close eye on its spinoff, Once Upon A Time In Wonderland. I do find it strange that the Once Upon A Time series hasn't been shifted from it Sunday timeslot to lead in the spinoff, or air the night before, which would be taking a page from CBS's playbook and their successful NCIS spinoffs. Meanwhile, Once Upon A Time In Wonderland leads in the tenth season of Grey's Anatomy, which typically rates very highly in the first few weeks before settling down. The show managed double figure audience figures only twice last season (episodes 1 & 2) which reflects this trend. ABC's best drama, and one of the shows many TV fans are talking about, Scandal, continues at 10pm. Scandal actually rated higher than its lead-in, Grey's Anatomy a couple of times last season, and I've got no doubt that it pull that off once again.
Over on NBC, the night is filled with comedy, beginning with Parks & Recreation, which is into its sixth season. Three new half hour comedies follow, in the form of Welcome To The Family, Sean Saves The World and The Michael J. Fox Show. The former two begin Thursday week, but The Michael J Fox Show kicks off this week, along with Parks & Recreation. The 10pm timeslot is occupied by Parenthood, now into its fifth season. I would be amazed if any of these shows manage to pass the 2.0 ratings mark given the competition from CBS and ABC, but you never know.
Fridays are pretty quiet for all the networks. CBS's Hawaii Five-0 makes the move from Mondays 10pm to Fridays 9pm, where freshman Hostages takes its place. After a poorly rating first season, ABC's science fiction sitcom The Neighbors makes the move from early early Wednesdays to Fridays at 8:30pm. NBC's Grimm premieres in 4 weeks time at 9pm, and will lead in British produced freshman series Dracula, which premieres this Friday.
Skipping Saturdays, let's look at Sundays. The original Once Upon A Time premieres for its third season, and like I said earlier, I'm a little surprised ABC didn't move it to a weekday timeslot to lead in its spinoff. Nevertheless, Revenge remains in the 9pm timeslot, and will be asked to lead Sunday's only freshman series, serial drama Betrayal. I might check this series out if I can find the time. At the moment, Betrayal has a 13 episode order, so ABC will have to find a replacement midseason should it not rate well, which wouldn't be entirely surprising considering how Once Upon A Time and Revenge performed towards the latter end of last season.
Over on CBS, The Good Wife and The Mentalist combine from 9-11pm. It looks increasingly likely that this season of The Mentalist will be its last, given the departure of two of the leads at the end of this season, and the plans by the creators to reveal who the infamous Red John is. CBS succeeded in destroying the ratings of a series which was once watched by 15 million people each week by moving it to Sundays.
Meanwhile, FOX continues its animated comedy on Sundays, with The Simpsons, Bob's Burgers, Family Guy, and American Dad! airing in that order for half an hour each from 8pm
So there we have it, that's a basic rundown of this season's fall schedule and what could happen. What shows are you looking forward to, and what decisions by the networks do you or do you not like? Have your say in the comments below.
Remember you can see comprehensive ratings data, statistics and analysis for many of the shows I've discussed on my website, www.seriesmonitor.com
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Thanks for reading!
Jimmy
Awesome as usual Jimmy. I think the point of moving POI to Tuesdays is they've cancelled both their 10pm shows over the last two years, so CBS are now moving one of their favourites there, so basically saying to other networks "We win Tuesdays. Every week. You compete with us for the other days."
ReplyDeleteGreat stuff as always Jimmy. Thanks for posting.
ReplyDeleteGoing to be an interesting ratings season again
Good call, it's a net win for POI, and CBS also have the advantage of having the fewest new shows this season which means they can free up their bigger shows. It is a change that may be reversed or change again next season
ReplyDeleteCheers @DarkUFO, looking forward to the season beginning!
ReplyDeleteJimmy , i also don't like POI to move to new slot but with no competition at 10 pm slot and with 2 NCIS shows before it this seems a better position for the show in the long run
ReplyDeleteAs far as renewals are concerned POI still has ratings which will ensure its renewed for few more seasons :)
Very interesting read, Jimmy. Thanks for writing it!
ReplyDeleteFYI, ABC already has a replacement for Betrayal, it's called Resurrection and it premires on March 9.
Glad you liked it, and thanks for that, good to know ABC has something in place
ReplyDeleteOf course leave out the network I watch the most..CW. Tuesday will be the new night for Supernatural and is the ONLY show I watch live. I have the Dish Hopper and can record 6 shows at once so no problem watching Agents of Shield, both NCISs and POI along with SPN. On CW this year,
ReplyDeleteMonday..Hart of Dixie, Beauty and the Beast
Tuesday..The Originals(new) & SPN
Wednesday.. Arrow, The Tomorrow People(new)
Thursday..The Vampire Diaries, Reign(new)
Friday...The Carrie Diaries, America's Next Top Model
For me Friday is not watched and Reign does not sound like anything I care about.
Comprehensive and awesome article! Hope to see more of this from you, great one!
ReplyDeleteOn Mondays, I also expect "The Blacklist" to win in ratings (comes after The Voice, and it skews younger than DWTS), but I expect Castle to win in audience (it usually does),,,
ReplyDeleteMonday is the only day that I think CBS might not win. All the other days are guaranteed in my eyes.
ReplyDeleteOne mistake there: the freshemen comedies on FOX weren't #1 and #2, New Girl scored the 2.9, so they would be #2 (Brooklyn with a 2.6) and #3 (Dads with a 2.2)
ReplyDeleteInteresting, thanks! Any chance you'll do another one once the other shows premiere?
ReplyDeleteMonday - NBC 1st
ReplyDeleteTuesday - CBS 1st
Wednesday - CBS/ABC will be 1st on-and-off each week
Thursday - CBS 1st
Friday - Tough call, i'd say ABC, if their comedies don't fail. However it could be NBC when Grimm and Dracula premiere on October 25th
I expect Blacklist to start of big but I do think overall Hostages will be the winner. I suspect Castle may be up a bit behind a rejuvenated DWTS.
ReplyDeleteYou watch America's Next Top Model? I thought "HeartTopModel05/Youtube" and myself were the only one's left. Cycle 20 has been pretty good! 4 A SOCIAL MEDIA EXPERIENCE, I remain Nobody!!!
ReplyDeleteTuesdays are not a safe bet for CBS. I predict a collapse for LA when faced with the voice on a weekly basis and the mothership itself will be weaker this year facing Shield, as little overlap as may be. I think NBC will take the night. At 8, NCIS will win against the biggest looser but TBL should not be a total bomb. The Voice will dominate against la and at 10, I expect similar ratings from both dramas, with POI having a slightly advantage maybe. But the ratings gap at 9pm should be large enough to compensate for the way smaller gaps at 8 and possibly 10.
ReplyDeleteWednesdays I agree that it is between CBS and ABC, but I think CBS takes it because Super Fun Night will bomb hard and take Nashville down with it. There is only so much MF can do to save the night!
Thursdays are not 100% CBS either. There is a chance that ABC takes it. Not a great chance, but a chance. Scandal will dominate Elementary even more than last year I think at 10pm. 9PM is very hard to predict because we don't know how the crazy ones will do. If it doesn't hit as much as CBS expect and Two and a Half Men falls with it, Grey's may take the hour - it's tough to call! Big Bang will obviously dominate at 8, but if Wonderland works out decently and if the millers disappoints, the ratings gap there may not be enough to compensate for the entire night.
Sundays are NBC in the fall 100% with football.
I'm irritated at CBS for giving an Elementary two multi-week breaks in a row last spring. Thank goodness the ratings had been somewhat strong, or it might have been fatal and not just damaging. I think it hurt the show's momentum going into what was probably the strongest episodes of the season.
ReplyDeleteI'm dubious about 2.5 Men as a lead-in, but I do think the show will improve upon its later numbers last year and it seems like the DVD sales, etc, have been decent. So while Scandal has a lot of buzz, I think Elementary shows the typical CBS trajectory of modest numbers growing into something bigger as more viewers stumble upon it. Big Bang and NCIS were both late-in-life hits.
Also, as someone who has followed a lot of CBS shows over the years (I know) Elementary has a slightly cooler vibe than a lot of their shows and I hope that eventually translates into younger viewers.
Do you think it'll premiere stronger than its finale? I tend to think it has to, I also notice that the SD+3 and SD+7 show huge gains (finale went from roughly 9mil viewers to 14mil) and I think CBS needs to task itself with making the show a priority with viewers as long as we're working with the somewhat outdated system.
I sound like such a fangirl, I realize, but I'm really delighted to see CBS breaking out of its box a bit and I hope it works for them. The last several eps of the show was better than anything I had seen on that network in years. The Good Wife is good TV, but Elementary has untapped potential if its allowed to develop, I think.
No I said I do not watch CW on Friday, am not into any "reality" shows.
ReplyDeleteI'm also really REALLY looking forward to Supernatural, The Walking Dead and the Doctor Who 50th anniversary!
ReplyDeleteGoing by last season's figures for The Walking Dead, I wouldn't be surprised if that is majorly viewed too. The premier's and finale's from TWD are always largely viewed, and sometimes even break records too. However, I acknowledge people didn't really like the season 3 finale as much- which hopefully won't effect the premiere viewing this time round, but going by the season 4 trailer, I can guarantee a huge amount of views! (On Sunday's along with Once Upon A Time, brilliant!)
Supernatural is looking EXTREMELY pleasing also! They're bringing back many fan favourite's and the promo/trailer looked very promising! (Which is also on the same day as Agents Of Shield, another great night for me!)
And then obviously Doctor Who is going to be hugely popular, especially with David Tennant and Billie Piper returning.
BRING ON THE SHOWS! :))
it should be interesting how both revenge and once upon a time do in ratings this season but hopefully they regain back most of their ratings
ReplyDeleteChicago Fire was one of the most obvious renewals from last season, I don't get your comments about it.
ReplyDeleteThe Elementary creators did everything right later in the season by transitioning from a procedural based format to a serial based format. That allowed them to spend the last quarter of last season developing a backstory and introducing Irene etc, which was superbly well done. It's done very well for itself and the duo are off to London for the premiere which will entice a few more viewers back in. It should be a good season!
ReplyDeleteProbably, depends how much time I spend watching them myself!
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot for the feedback! I really appreciate it :-)
ReplyDeleteSleepy Hollow i hope wins the ratings for Mondays
ReplyDelete