Update: 13th May Here is the final full table. I think we did pretty well again.
We'll be back with a new Cancellation Predictor Table for 2012/13 later in the year.
Hope you enjoyed this!
Update: 12th May Added all the recent NBC and ABC Renewals. Update: 10th May Added Alcatraz and Finder Cancellations and Touch Renewal. Update: 9th May Private Practice moves to the "In Danger Zone" Update: 28th April Latest tables and include Best Friends Forever cancellation. Update: 27th April Fringe Renewed :) Update: 26th April Don't Trust the Bitch moves in the "In Danger Zone". Best Friends Foreever moves into the "Likely to be Cancelled" Update: 16th April NYC 22 added to table (already in trouble). GCB moves into the "In Danger" zone. Update: 12th April Don't Trust the Bitch.. added to table. Update: 11th April Latest table posted Update: 9th April Added renewals for New Girl, Raising Hope and Glee Update: 6th April Scandal added to table. Update: 5th April Best Friends Forever added and already in the In Danger Zone. Update: 30th March Awake Moves into the Likely to be Cancelled Zone, Secret Circle moves into the In Danger Zone Update: 22nd March Bent added to table already in the Likely to Be Cancelled Zone. Update: 21st March Breaking In moves into the Likely to be Cancelled Zone. Update: 16th March Missing added to table Update: 15th March Added new CBS Renewals. Update: 14th March Breaking In moves into the "In Danger" zone. Update: 13th March Awake moves into the "In Danger Zone". Update: 13th March Alcatraz moves into the "In Danger Zone" Update: 12th March Bob's Burgers added to Table. Update: 7th March Breaking In added to table. Update: 6th March Terra Nova added to the Cancelled List Update: 5th March GCB added to table Update: 2nd March Awake added to Table. Update: 29th Feb Ringer and Cougartown fall further into the Danger Zone. The River is now in the "Likely to be Cancelled" zone. Update: 21st Feb Gossip Girl moves into the "Likely to be Cancelled" zone. Update: 20th Feb Big update today with a number of shows moving into the "In Danger" zone. Update: 17th Feb Parks and Recreation moves into the "In Danger" zone. Update: 16th Feb Law and Order SVU, The River and Cougar Town all move into the "In Danger" zone. Update: 9th Feb House marked as Cancelled. Update: 8th Feb The River opens with modest numbers Update: 7th Feb Smash opens to good numbers. Update: 3rd Feb 30 Rock moves into the "In Danger" zone. Update: 30th Jan CSI Miami moves into the "In Danger" zone. Update: 27th Jan The Finder moves out of the "In Danger" zone..just Update: 26th Jan Touch added to table with strong premiere ratings. Update: 24th Jan Latest table posted. Update: 20th The Firm moves into the "Likely to be cancelled" zone, Secret Circle goes into the "Danger Zone" Update: 19th Jan The Firm and Are You There Chelsea both move into the "In Danger" zone. Update: 17th Jan Alcatraz enters the charts to good ratings Update: 16th Jan Napoleon Dynamite opens with strong numbers. Update: 14th Jan Work It marked as Cancelled. Update: 13th Jan The Firm enters the In Danger Zone, ROB opens strong, and The Finder start poorly. Update: 12th Jan One Tree Hill and Are You There Chelsea go into the table following their premiers last night
Update: 11th Jan Work It moves into the Likely to be Cancelled Zone after just 2 episodes.
Update: 9th Jan Allen Gregory marked as cancelled and The Firm already in the In Danger Zone
Update: 4th Jan Work It! immediately enters the "In Danger" zone after just 1 episode.
Update: 3rd Jan First update of 2012
Update: 8th Dec I Hate My Teenage Daughter moves into the "In Danger" zone after just 2 episodes! Update: 2nd Dec I Hate My Teenage Daughter enters the table after it's premiere on Wednesday
Update: 30th Nov Pan Am marked as Cancelled, Allen Gregory and Body of Proof move into the "Likely to be Cancelled" zones. Update: 22nd Nov Terra Nova is moving very close to the In Danger Zone!
Update: 21st Nov Man Up now marked as Cancelled
Update: 16th Nov Man Up and moves into the Likely to be Cancelled Zone, and Prime Suspect now marked as Cancelled.
Update: 12th Nov Fringe move back into the Likely to be Cancelled zone :(
Update: 5th Nov Fringe moves from Likely to be Cancelled to In Danger.. but only just.
Update: 4th Nov Bones enters the chart with good premiere ratings and the recent ABC Full Season Pickups have been updated.
Update: 3rd Nov Harry's Law enters the Likely to be Cancelled zone :(
Update: 31st October Allen Gregory enters the chart to low initial numbers. Once Upon a Time still doing well.
Update: 29th October Grimm enters the table to a good start but Chuck hits a series low.
Update: 26th October Body of Proof and new Man Up enter the "In Danger Zone". Modern Family overtakes Two and Half Men as the "safest" show.
Update: 24th October Once Upon a Time opens very strong and Pan Am moves into the Likely to be Cancelled zone.
Update: 21st October Rules of Engagement enters with strong premiere numbers.
Update: 19th October Man Up enters the table to mediocre numbers. Ringer and Secret Circle move out of the "In Danger" zone .. just :)
Update: 15th Oct Fringe unfortunately moves into the "Likely to be Cancelled" area :(
Update: 13th October Update All Night enters the "Danger Zone". Hart of Dixe, Ringer and The Secret Circle marked as Full Season Pickup.
Update: 12th October Last Man Standing enters the charts well. Also Prime Suspect moves into the "Danger Zone"
Update: 11th October Hart of Dixie moves into the "Danger Zone"
Update: 10th October Free Agents and How to Be a Gentleman both now in the Cancelled zone. Pan Am moves into the "In Danger" zone and Charlie's Angels enters the "likely to be cancelled" zone. So far the Cancellation Prediction table is looking pretty accurate this season.
Update: 5th October We had our first casualty yesterday in The Playboy Club as our Table predicted. The tables are slowly stabilising and as we get more data in they will hopefully become more and more accurate. Also, moving into the Likely to be Cancelled zone are Free Agents and A Gifted Man.
Welcome to this years SpoilerTV Cancellation Predictor.
Last year each week we updated our data (see the notes below about how we get our data) in order to see if we could predict which show(s) would be renewed or cancelled. As you can see from last years summary, we did pretty well, with the exception of Chuck, Fringe, Community, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behaviour and The Chicago Code our table was pretty accurate.
This index is by no means a 100% accurate guide about if your show is safe or in danger and should be seen as a bit of FUN.
NOTE: That until we have at least 3-4 weeks of data for each show that this table is not going to be very accurate and it will vary a lot each update. Once we have 3-4 weeks of data we'll post our predictions for the Season ahead and we can then track how we are doing. We'll try to update the full Cancellation Table every couple of days as we get new data in.
Please let us know if there are any shows missing (only new and returning shows from ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC will be included) and if there are any of the shows below that have already been renewed etc and we'll update the color coding. I did this in a hurry so there may be a few omissions. I'll give it a big tidy as we go on and get more data in. You can access this page via the Features Menu or by bookmarking this page.
(Click to Enlarge - Press CTRL-F5 on the image page to get the latest) As of 13th May 2012
Notes: 1) The Higher the Index Rating the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety. 2) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate. 3) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC. 4) This is a weekly update of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers and + 7 Numbers. These 2 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents etc. 5) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg Chuck is in it's finale season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expirted. An example might be Supernatural if it’s two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc 6) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue 7) Shows with an Index over 3.00 are likely to be cancelled, 2.50-2.99 - in danger and less that 2.50 safe. Although shows nearer 2.50 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.
If you have any questions/suggestions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.
I love the new TV season but the cancellation waiting is nerve wrecking at times. Though I love it when shows everyone says will be dead get another season.
I so love the cancellation table! It both entertains me and confounds me, but every year I check it out weekly and attempt to predict which series are goners and which of my new favorites I will continue....
It really is. I mean shows getting 10 million a night can be cancelled on CBS these days.... and let's not even bring up CW. XD
Then add in the way shows are set up now with a pilot, front end and back 9 episodes... each milestone is important, but yet can be ignored if the network so chooses.
I guess it makes it more interesting as long as they aren't cancelling my favorite series like Rubicon again!
I will be checking the list every week and I think the first cancellation won't be far away with that terrible show H8R. I think they were scraping the bottom of the barrel when they picked up that show
Ha yes, I think already the Cancellation Table has predicted it's doom already :) I suspect next week with the usual drop-off in viewers and increased competition that it will be one of the highest predicted shows to be cancelled ever :) It may even get pulled before next week lol
A few corrections on the names of the shows would be nice... "The" Vampire Diaries, "2" Broke Girls, "The" Secret Circle, "New Girl" (without "The"), "CSI: NY" (with a space), Mike "&" Molly... at least for me, it would be easier to find the show as I'm used to this names at the other websites. :) Thanks,Gabe.
I'm pretty confident that none of my faves with get cancelled this year now that Medium is gone :(... However I am a little worried about Blue Bloods with all the changes that are supposedly being made
Hate that Ringer is in the danger zone. I'm loving that show! Come on SMG fans! Stop DVRing and watch LIVE! 90210 better get cancelled before Ringer at least. That show never should of been renewed, to be honest.
I don't think the CW can pull H8R quite this soon, especially since it is cheaper to produce. Still, they have to be scrambling to determine what they are going to do next.
I watched the pilot episode of Ringer last night (mostly cause Nestor Carbonell is starring in it). It wasn't bad, but after this first episode, I'm unsure if I'll continue and there are so many old and new show to watch.
It's very difficult for me, 'cause I like to keep the numbers stored on a table that I made, week by week, to see the growth of the shows I watch, so I have to update the numbers every week, one by one. I didn't want the formulas or anything, just the text in a more accessible (non-image) way, so I could just copy and paste. But ok =/ I'll wait, hope you guys take that idea into consideration.
Thanks. Soon we'll be doing our Full Ratings Tables which will have all the Viewing Numbers in a large table which will be in Google Docs that you can copy and paste.
If you email me I can send you table that we currently use so that you can copy and paste.
Just drop me an email at darkufo@spoilertv.com and I can send it to you. That should help you entering your data :)
Another year of seeing Community in the "In Danger" territory and me worrying, gotta hope the rest of NBC's shows tank again and consistent ratings and fan love for the show keep it around.
I'm from Canada, can someone explain the difference between cable and network/broadcast? When someone says they're watching "cable" it always confuses me. Here we only get two channels for free (without cable, I guess that's called broadcast?) which are CBC and NTV (a local channel for just Newfoundland) and everything else would be called cable. HBO I guess I would call "premium cable" since it's usually an extra cost above the standard package.
We won't know until we get at least 3-4 weeks of data. There are still over 30+ shows yet to air/start this season so we need to wait until we have those shows into the system.
I would be worried for Fringe, except it's pretty much lived in the "In Danger" zone for the past three years. Us fans just need to keep calm and keep watching.
I'm confused....why is NCISLA rated higher than The Mentalist when NCISLA has a 3.6 + 16.69 million viewers while The Mentalist has a 2.8 + 13.36 million viewers ? Could you please explain? :)
I really hope you are right about SPN. My head tells me it will be fine. It is all about relativities, and the chances of SPN being in the bottom 3 rated shows on the network are slim to none. But still, my heart is incredibly disappointed in the ratings for the premiere. It was fantastic and deserved so much better.
BTW where is ANTM on your list? At first I assumed it was only scripted drama, but you included H8R.
We enter them as soon as we have ratings ie after the first episode although the numbers won't mean a great deal until we have 3-4 weeks of ratings data to make the table accurate. As we only have 1 weeks worth of data for most shows it's a very very very rough estimate currently.
I like this table better with new color code, but if I was you, I would add another table besides Renewed and Cancelled/Ending. I would like to have another table for Ending because that makes a big difference for me. While the first list do have a color code for the show ending, it makes more easy to see a list how much shows is ending.. Maybe I'm seeing ghosts, but just for the know..
A whole heap of reasons (most of them are explained in the post notes). But basically Fringe being on a larger network means it needs more viewers as a rule of thumb, also the production costs are a lot more and Supernatural has had over 100 episodes which means its syndicated and can earn more money from reruns on other stations etc.
It is nice to have something to get an idea of how safe or in danger a show is ;) especially because I`m too clueless to understand the rating tables ^^
Can someone explain the logic behind this? I've seen mostly bad reviews for 2 Broke Girls but it's doing pretty good in the ratings. How can there be so much dislike for a show and such a good rating?
Because people are ignorant morons. They like to stare at mindless drivel after a long hard day of doing tedious, pointless work for a pointy-haired tyrant for a small paycheck and even less respect. Then, they pick up their bratty, ungrateful children from school. Their grades are terrible, but it's okay, because they got Justin Bieber tickets. They come home to a deteriorating home that, after the recession, is worth a fraction of what they paid. After a healthy dinner that everyone hates, it's TV time. Instead of something of social relevance, like The Good Wife, they will watch a procedural like CSI or a raunchy comedy like the one you said, 2 Broke Girls. And all the while, being bombarded with commercials of a lifestyle that they can't possibly afford. Afterward they will have unsatisfying sex that lasts three minutes, at most. Repeat until death.
I'm sooo glad I'm not actually like that. I have a decent paying job that I actually enjoy and a small apartment but that's more because I don't use a lot of space. I'm not married or even dating anyone because I've always been kind of a loner. I play games and watch TV shows to amuse myself, which is why I'm getting sick of all this depressing crap on TV these days.
Despite being almost the complete opposite of the person you described, I still don't understand the logic behind these ratings.
Hope Community and Fringe gets another season, and another, and another... God, they are two of the best shows on air. Community is like my favorite comedy ever, so keep up, buddy.
Yes, you're not like that. I'm not like that either. The people with the Nielsen boxes, the people who choose what is or isn't cancelled, are. That is why quality fare like Fringe is on its death bed, while Two and a Half Men is king.
Because TV Guide considers it one of the best new shows of the season, and it's nestled safely between other CBS hits? I took one look at the 2 Blank Faces in the cast photo; and decided not to watch.
I am not surprised by this at all in terms of Gossip Girl slipping. I hope they just marry Chuck and Blair by the end of the season and then just end it after this season, LOL.
I'm really worried about Parks and Community, though. I though they aren't achieving as highly as they should, but I feel Parks might just get renewed in the hopes that it'll win an Emmy or two.
Also, why is The Secret Circle in danger on this list while GG isn't? TSC gets better ratings. Is it because it's new?
Considering the show has zero promotion, no lead in, and a crap time slot I'd say the numbers are ok. But again -- Nikita, on this network, is not a Nielsen show. Those #'s aren't telling the whole story.
Let's be honest, the CW can put almost any scripted series on and get 1.5 million viewers and most new series get 2 million plus. Nikita seems to have relatively high production cost for the CW. Without numbers to warrant it, I will not be shocked if it gets cancelled either.
Side note: IT has gone down hill fast after putting Michael and Nikita together too... another bad sign.
" The pilot episode got off to a disappointing start with a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating and 1.39 million viewers. The second episode scored another 0.5 adults 18-49 rating, steady versus the pilot episode, but was up 84,000 viewers to 1.47 million. "
Very hard to say for shows on channels like ABC Family. It's not always so obvious how they determine renewal/cancellation. I'd say it's probably in danger if I was a betting man.
We'll be sure to post any news on Renewal/Cancellation as soon as we have it.
Really hoping H8R goes next, though the CW doesn't usually cancel mid-season. Wouldn't mind seeing Whitney and Hart of Dixie change place with Nikita and Parks & Recreations on the table.
Why is Nikita in danger if it pulls in the same numbers as Supernatural? It's a young show and has similar numbers, a growing passionate fanbase, great reviews and significant international viewership. Maybe its being groomed into something comparable to Supernatural, hence sticking it on Friday with a show that has similar demos. Supernatural has the advantage of being on 7 seasons already. Do these factors contribute to Nikita's viability? I would say "yes".
i think Secret Cicle is safe for renewal not in danger its averaged a 1.0 A18-49 vs the 0.88 average plus is doing well in W18-34 and theres no way 5 shows of the CW can be in danger theres just no way i think you should compare it to how the CW averages and compare it too that cause the CW wont cancel 5 shows thus 5 shows cant be in danger maybe 2 or 3 at the most being Gossip Girl, 90210, Nikita IMO
It looks like there IS a fate worse than being consigned to Friday night ;-) I wonder if Ruled of Engagement will be able to capitalize on the lucky break; or is it already too late.
Shouldn't Spn be higher? When all the CW shows are so low and more than half of them in the danger zone, the more shows of the same channel are in trouble, the more chances for Spn to get renew
Every single shows at the CW are dropping, SPN is around the 4th place of the channel in ratings, doing that while being on friday night, so it's not as bad as it look
Yep, exactly :) We only really have time and resources to track the main networks. The other cable and premium ratings have a differnent set of criteria for renewing / cancelling shows which makes the table unreliable etc.
This is a very useful article! But here's an ideia: Why don't you put another section in this table? The already "Picked up for a full season" shows? What do you think of this?
I tremble each time I see Fringe in this predictor table! Danger...danger...danger...Whyyyyyyy! :( I hope it doesn't get canceled but if it will at least I hope it gets a good final
Cool, I understand! despite I'm curious how homeland and american horror story are doing I really understand that you can't put all shows from every networks! Keep on the good work and thanks :)
The good news for CW fans is that this network can afford to cancel far fewer shows than most. Being in the yellow is not quite as dire as other networks.
I think ABC is in the hopes of getting an audience boost for Charlie's Angels with this next episode featuring Erica Durance. Because, otherwise, why haven't they cancelled that already?
The Cable/Pay channels are much harder to predict on the viewing numbers alone. It's one of the many reasons we don't add it to the table as it's so hard to predict :)
We don't have the ratings numbers for the 2nd episode yet so it's just too early to even begin to guess about a 2nd Season.
Im not sure what to think about this but it was posted on the Eureka FB page. http://video.syfy.com/shows/eureka/promos_trailers_2/eureka--holiday-episode--sneak-peek/v1361273
do you include the Live+7 18-49 ratings? i understand, of course, that we can't be sure how much those are considered buy the network, but you know, it's 21th Century :)
Oh, Dear Lord of the series in crisis, Hart of Dixie entering the danger zone... NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! At the very least, Charlie's Angels should get axed first.
I'm afraid not, we're constantly changing and tweeking it to make it more accurate and some of the data is entered manually in various different spreadsheets. There is not one large forumula but a series of formulas for the different ratings/rankings etc etc
It's safe according to our calculations. But as we say, no system is 100% accurate. If you look at last year there were some surprises like Fringe getting renewed and Criminal Minds Suspect Behaviour getting cancelled etc
Well, considering CMSB was on CBS, I would call it an aberration, and perhaps you should introduce a CBS modifier in the formula :) Having that in mind, plus Fringe being a sort of Friday night clut favorite, and FOX not having anything else to show (fortunately!), I would say your calculations are as good as any. And I guess this week's bump for TN is a good sign
Ha yes, I think I need a modifier for a few of them :)
Yep, at the moment TN is doing ok. Obviously FOX would like better ratings but it's not in trouble just yet. Also the overseas sales have been pretty strong I believe.
Unfortunatly nothing like that exists as far as I can find. We get the odd snippet from sites like deadline.com and from the occasional Network press release etc but there is no nice table available. I guess the networks try to keep those numbers to themselves unless they have a massive success and then PR the crap out of it.
NOTE: Name-calling, personal attacks, spamming, excessive self-promotion, condescending pomposity, general assiness, racism, sexism, any-other-ism, homophobia, acrophobia, and destructive (versus constructive) criticism will get you BANNED from the party.
Be keeping a close eye on this as the weeks go by :)
ReplyDeleteCool, hope you enjoy this feature as much as we do compiling it :)
ReplyDeleteTwo "Family Guy"s and no Fringe?
ReplyDeleteHa oops. Will fix in the next update.
ReplyDeleteI told you I did it in a hurry lol :)
Aww, don't worry :D It's just that it was the first thing that I noticed - that there was no Fringe. Thank you for your work! ;)
ReplyDeleteI love the work you do on this chart.It helps me as a viewer be prepared for what is to come besides just being fun to look over
ReplyDeleteAnd it's also the final season for One Tree Hill, it isn't marked in orange like it should be.
ReplyDeleteHa no worries. I'm glad you spotted it :)
ReplyDeleteThanks Rama, will be fixed in the next update.
ReplyDeleteI love the new TV season but the cancellation waiting is nerve wrecking at times. Though I love it when shows everyone says will be dead get another season.
ReplyDeleteI so love the cancellation table!
ReplyDeleteIt both entertains me and confounds me, but every year I check it out weekly and attempt to predict which series are goners and which of my new favorites I will continue....
Ha yes, it's both nervewracking and exciting :) There are always 1 or 2 surprises each season.
ReplyDeleteYep, it's getting harder to predict every year as the neilsen ratings become less and less relevant I suspect.
ReplyDeleteIt really is. I mean shows getting 10 million a night can be cancelled on CBS these days.... and let's not even bring up CW. XD
ReplyDeleteThen add in the way shows are set up now with a pilot, front end and back 9 episodes... each milestone is important, but yet can be ignored if the network so chooses.
I guess it makes it more interesting as long as they aren't cancelling my favorite series like Rubicon again!
EXACTLY!
ReplyDeleteAnd don't get me started on Rubicon again :(
I will be checking the list every week and I think the first cancellation won't be far away with that terrible show H8R. I think they were scraping the bottom of the barrel when they picked up that show
ReplyDeleteIn the table "Two and a Half Men" is marked as New Season Announced instead of HIMYM.
ReplyDeleteHa yes, I think already the Cancellation Table has predicted it's doom already :) I suspect next week with the usual drop-off in viewers and increased competition that it will be one of the highest predicted shows to be cancelled ever :) It may even get pulled before next week lol
ReplyDeleteThanks, will be fixed in the next update :)
ReplyDeleteOnce Upon a Time is marked as final season instead of One Tree Hill.
ReplyDelete-
BTW, thanks for the table, it's a awesome work!
Ha oops. Will be fixed in the next update :)
ReplyDeleteThanks, definitely keeping an eye on this
ReplyDeleteHow can Once Upon A Time be having its final season if it hasn't aired? Is that a mistake?
ReplyDeleteYes :)
ReplyDeleteWhy is Once Upon A Time in danger? It hasn't aired yet.
ReplyDeleteIt's a mistake.
ReplyDeleteI had predicted Whitney as first cancelled, but the way NBC is throwing money at its promotion.... maybe H8R it is....
ReplyDeleteIs it? Ha! XD
ReplyDeleteI'm glad that it was only a mistake because well I'm not so sure about the show
ReplyDeleteAnd.... here we go!
ReplyDeletewhat about putting down the cable renewals in the renewed box such as True Blood, Mad Men, Franklin & Bash, Falling Skies, Wilfred etc.
ReplyDeleteWe might do a separate chart for Cable at some point. These spreadsheets are currently all configured for Network/Broadcast only etc
ReplyDeletebut i dont mean putting them in the chart put just putting them in the box that says "Renewed" like you did with the 2010-2011 season
ReplyDeleteYes, I might do that later. The new Spreadsheet is all automated this year. I'd need to make some changes when I get time
ReplyDeleteUnless ratings go really bad, the President of the CW says Supernatural has a season 8
ReplyDeleteI've been getting excited for this for the past few days! It's one of my favourite parts of the site.
ReplyDeleteare you going to put there shows that are already been renewed? like White collar? :P
ReplyDeletethanks for this, btw!! :D
You forgot to add Tara Nova to the list.
ReplyDeleteThanks Mike, I'll make sure it's included in the next update. Nice one.
ReplyDeleteWhen will the next update be?
ReplyDeleteHopefully later today when we get last nights results in.
ReplyDeleteThe table won't make a lot of sense until we have 4 weeks worth of data for each show anyway
Man upsetting that Chuck is on the list. But, I still love it.
ReplyDeleteI love following this list, but I hate it when shows go under after two or three episodes. How can anything get established in so short a time?
ReplyDeleteA few corrections on the names of the shows would be nice... "The" Vampire Diaries, "2" Broke Girls, "The" Secret Circle, "New Girl" (without "The"), "CSI: NY" (with a space), Mike "&" Molly... at least for me, it would be easier to find the show as I'm used to this names at the other websites. :) Thanks,Gabe.
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty confident that none of my faves with get cancelled this year now that Medium is gone :(... However I am a little worried about Blue Bloods with all the changes that are supposedly being made
ReplyDeleteThanks! However, Ringer is not in trouble... don't get that
ReplyDeleteThank you, I always follow this table and suffer when my favorite shows fall into the yellow/red section ;)Regards from Argentina!
ReplyDeleteI'll be looking forward to this in a few weeks once everything has aired and we have some more data on these earlier premieres.
ReplyDeleteBy then I bet a few of the safe shows right now will be in the yellow....
You might as well add In Plain Sight to the orange column; as the next season will be its last. :-(
ReplyDeleteThese are just for the main Broadcast Networks currently. We'll do another table later on for all shows inc cable.
ReplyDeleteThanks :)
ReplyDeleteHate that Ringer is in the danger zone. I'm loving that show! Come on SMG fans! Stop DVRing and watch LIVE! 90210 better get cancelled before Ringer at least. That show never should of been renewed, to be honest.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the CW can pull H8R quite this soon, especially since it is cheaper to produce. Still, they have to be scrambling to determine what they are going to do next.
ReplyDeleteOnly because it is on the CW. Any other network and it would be gone.
ReplyDeleteWhat about my suggestion on the name of the series? =(
ReplyDeleteSorry, what suggestion was that?
ReplyDeleteI love this feature! Now even more since I don't have to fear for Chuck. Thanks so much for already posting it.
ReplyDeleteps.:The Playboy Club looking worse than Ringer... that is bad, really bad.
Glad you like it.
ReplyDeleteRemember the table won't really be very accurate until all shows have aired and they have all aired 3-4 episodes.
I watched the pilot episode of Ringer last night (mostly cause Nestor Carbonell is starring in it). It wasn't bad, but after this first episode, I'm unsure if I'll continue and there are so many old and new show to watch.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.spoilertv.com/2011/09/spoilertv-cancellation-predicator-table.html#comment-316208675 ;)
ReplyDeleteCool, they should appear in the next update
ReplyDeleteAh thanks mate.
ReplyDeleteYep! I know the drill, but thanks for the heads up anyway!
ReplyDeleteWoot! My favourite STV feature :D!
ReplyDeleteI know that... that's why I'm saying that I don't understand. So far it has been performing pretty good.
ReplyDeleteNBC did not have a good night.
ReplyDeleteaw, looks good for castle & greys :)
ReplyDeleteSorry, about that; meanwhile L&O SVU and Harry's Law returned Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteHey, what about a text version of the table on the site? *-*
ReplyDeleteIt would be a lot easier to search the shows. :(
I'm afraid that's not possible currently. We might look at doing one later on in the season once we have more data in there.
ReplyDeleteIt's very difficult for me, 'cause I like to keep the numbers stored on a table that I made, week by week, to see the growth of the shows I watch, so I have to update the numbers every week, one by one. I didn't want the formulas or anything, just the text in a more accessible (non-image) way, so I could just copy and paste. But ok =/ I'll wait, hope you guys take that idea into consideration.
ReplyDeleteThanks. Soon we'll be doing our Full Ratings Tables which will have all the Viewing Numbers in a large table which will be in Google Docs that you can copy and paste.
ReplyDeleteIf you email me I can send you table that we currently use so that you can copy and paste.
Just drop me an email at darkufo@spoilertv.com and I can send it to you. That should help you entering your data :)
Another year of seeing Community in the "In Danger" territory and me worrying, gotta hope the rest of NBC's shows tank again and consistent ratings and fan love for the show keep it around.
ReplyDeleteIt is interesting to see that the tv show dvds come out in the weeks prior to the new season...just interesting in my eyes.
ReplyDeleteI'm from Canada, can someone explain the difference between cable and network/broadcast? When someone says they're watching "cable" it always confuses me. Here we only get two channels for free (without cable, I guess that's called broadcast?) which are CBC and NTV (a local channel for just Newfoundland) and everything else would be called cable. HBO I guess I would call "premium cable" since it's usually an extra cost above the standard package.
ReplyDeleteI'm from the UK so my understanding is not 100% lol :)
ReplyDeleteFor the purposes of SpoilerTV when we say the major Network/Broadcast stations we mean ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC and CW.
All the others we deal as cable/premium etc eg AMC, HBO, ShowTime etc
So Supernatural is safe for now???
ReplyDeleteWe won't know until we get at least 3-4 weeks of data. There are still over 30+ shows yet to air/start this season so we need to wait until we have those shows into the system.
ReplyDeletei love this feature but it is nerve wracking to see. Luckily things wont start to fan out until mid-october early november so ill be nervous then.
ReplyDeleteI would be worried for Fringe, except it's pretty much lived in the "In Danger" zone for the past three years. Us fans just need to keep calm and keep watching.
ReplyDeleteEverything is pretty much green that I have no idea if the top of the green shows are safe now or not :P
ReplyDeleteThe higher the index value, the more likely it is to get cancelled. See the Color Code explanation.
ReplyDeleteI'm confused....why is NCISLA rated higher than The Mentalist when NCISLA has a 3.6 + 16.69 million viewers while The Mentalist has a 2.8 + 13.36 million viewers ? Could you please explain? :)
ReplyDeleteThe value is based on more than just the 18-49 and viewing numbers. It's all explained at the bottom of the post.
ReplyDeleteThanks, I didn't seem to notice it...
ReplyDeleteHa, no worries :)
ReplyDeleteFringe already in danger!!! I'll not worry now. Last year everything was betting on cancelling and at the ending the show was renewed.
ReplyDeleteI really hope you are right about SPN. My head tells me it will be fine. It is all about relativities, and the chances of SPN being in the bottom 3 rated shows on the network are slim to none. But still, my heart is incredibly disappointed in the ratings for the premiere. It was fantastic and deserved so much better.
ReplyDeleteBTW where is ANTM on your list? At first I assumed it was only scripted drama, but you included H8R.
How many episodes have to air before you enter the show? Like Chuck hasn't aired yet, but when will it have a rating?
ReplyDeleteWe enter them as soon as we have ratings ie after the first episode although the numbers won't mean a great deal until we have 3-4 weeks of ratings data to make the table accurate. As we only have 1 weeks worth of data for most shows it's a very very very rough estimate currently.
ReplyDeleteI like this table better with new color code, but if I was you, I would add another table besides Renewed and Cancelled/Ending. I would like to have another table for Ending because that makes a big difference for me. While the first list do have a color code for the show ending, it makes more easy to see a list how much shows is ending.. Maybe I'm seeing ghosts, but just for the know..
ReplyDeleteYep, that will be in the next version. I didn't get time to update it fully yesterday
ReplyDeleteThanks for explaining. I've always found this table to be hugely useful, year in year out.
ReplyDeleteNo worries at all. Glad you find it helpful :)
ReplyDeleteWhy is Supernatural listed higher than Fringe? Fringe improved on their numbers from last season, and Supernatural was way down.
ReplyDeleteA whole heap of reasons (most of them are explained in the post notes). But basically Fringe being on a larger network means it needs more viewers as a rule of thumb, also the production costs are a lot more and Supernatural has had over 100 episodes which means its syndicated and can earn more money from reruns on other stations etc.
ReplyDeleteLast season of Chuck? Aha.^^
ReplyDeleteCan anyone PLEASE get the CW to talk and find out if this is or is not the last season of GG?
It is nice to have something to get an idea of how safe or in danger a show is ;) especially because I`m too clueless to understand the rating tables ^^
ReplyDeleteCome on Ringer! dip under 2.5 and I'll start watching you.
ReplyDeleteCan someone explain the logic behind this? I've seen mostly bad reviews for 2 Broke Girls but it's doing pretty good in the ratings. How can there be so much dislike for a show and such a good rating?
ReplyDeleteAh yes. You're right.
ReplyDeleteBecause people are ignorant morons. They like to stare at mindless drivel after a long hard day of doing tedious, pointless work for a pointy-haired tyrant for a small paycheck and even less respect. Then, they pick up their bratty, ungrateful children from school. Their grades are terrible, but it's okay, because they got Justin Bieber tickets. They come home to a deteriorating home that, after the recession, is worth a fraction of what they paid. After a healthy dinner that everyone hates, it's TV time. Instead of something of social relevance, like The Good Wife, they will watch a procedural like CSI or a raunchy comedy like the one you said, 2 Broke Girls. And all the while, being bombarded with commercials of a lifestyle that they can't possibly afford. Afterward they will have unsatisfying sex that lasts three minutes, at most.
ReplyDeleteRepeat until death.
awesome! I'll be keeping my eye on this table as the weeks go by.Thanks DARKUFO!!!!
ReplyDeleteIt's always depressing seeing Community so close to the orange.
ReplyDeleteI'm sooo glad I'm not actually like that. I have a decent paying job that I actually enjoy and a small apartment but that's more because I don't use a lot of space. I'm not married or even dating anyone because I've always been kind of a loner. I play games and watch TV shows to amuse myself, which is why I'm getting sick of all this depressing crap on TV these days.
ReplyDeleteDespite being almost the complete opposite of the person you described, I still don't understand the logic behind these ratings.
My pleasure :)
ReplyDeleteHope Community and Fringe gets another season, and another, and another... God, they are two of the best shows on air. Community is like my favorite comedy ever, so keep up, buddy.
ReplyDeleteYes, you're not like that. I'm not like that either. The people with the Nielsen boxes, the people who choose what is or isn't cancelled, are. That is why quality fare like Fringe is on its death bed, while Two and a Half Men is king.
ReplyDeleteBecause TV Guide considers it one of the best new shows of the season, and it's nestled safely between other CBS hits? I took one look at the 2 Blank Faces in the cast photo; and decided not to watch.
ReplyDeleteI think 2 broke girls might be cancelled.
ReplyDeleteWith OTR ending and H8R swirling the drain; I don't think CW can afford to lose Gossip Girl.
ReplyDeletehate to see community up there so high but from what i remeber it was up there last season too and we still have it :D
ReplyDeleteShould I be worried by the fact that The Mentalist scored it's lowest ratings ever last night (12.7 mil, 2.5) or is it still a lock for S5 renewal?
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't sweat it just yet; as it's still early in the season, and there are a handful of shows doing worse.
ReplyDeleteI am not surprised by this at all in terms of Gossip Girl slipping. I hope they just marry Chuck and Blair by the end of the season and then just end it after this season, LOL.
ReplyDeleteI'm really worried about Parks and Community, though. I though they aren't achieving as highly as they should, but I feel Parks might just get renewed in the hopes that it'll win an Emmy or two.
Also, why is The Secret Circle in danger on this list while GG isn't? TSC gets better ratings. Is it because it's new?
Make sure you read the Notes on the post. The table is not constructed purely on ratings numbers alone.
ReplyDeleteThank you! Silly me with my not reading.
ReplyDeleteHa no worries :)
ReplyDeleteAlso remember that until we have 3-4 weeks of data the table is a little unstable.
We know Criminal minds top show on wEd night isn't going anywhere If one show was to get axed soon it might be Charlie's angles
ReplyDeleteNikita is not in danger. A huge international following makes it safe.
ReplyDeleteI'm afraid it's in a LOT of danger. It's the networks weakest scripted show currently
ReplyDeleteNikita cannot be measured based solely on those #'s. The international exposure is a priority for CW's new president. And he has said as much.
ReplyDeleteWe'll I can only report what the ratings say. We base our table on a large number of factors that you can see in the post notes.
ReplyDeleteEver expert and web site that monitors tv ratings has Nikita in danger. I'm afraid those are simply the facts.
I will see you back here in May after the show gets renewed. Nikita is NOT in danger of being cancelled.
ReplyDeleteOk, remember don't shoot the messenger. We're simply posting what the numbers are telling us.
ReplyDeleteAnd Yes, I'll still be here in May :)
Considering the show has zero promotion, no lead in, and a crap time slot I'd say the numbers are ok. But again -- Nikita, on this network, is not a Nielsen show. Those #'s aren't telling the whole story.
ReplyDeleteJust out of curiosity: can CW afford to replace Nikita with OTH in its final season and H8R doing so poorly?
ReplyDeleteHard to say, they have several shows new shows in development
ReplyDeleteLet's be honest, the CW can put almost any scripted series on and get 1.5 million viewers and most new series get 2 million plus. Nikita seems to have relatively high production cost for the CW. Without numbers to warrant it, I will not be shocked if it gets cancelled either.
ReplyDeleteSide note: IT has gone down hill fast after putting Michael and Nikita together too... another bad sign.
Doesn't look like anything has gone down hill to me: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtUHOIwaJb4
ReplyDeleteare there any numbers for The lying game?
ReplyDeleteRob, It's on ABC Family. It's not a network we capture data for I'm afraid.
ReplyDeleteah ok didn't know that ^^ but thanks for the fast answer :)
ReplyDeleteMy pleasure :)
ReplyDeleteI got some info from wikipedia.
"
The pilot episode got off to a disappointing start with a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating and 1.39 million viewers. The second episode scored another 0.5 adults 18-49 rating, steady versus the pilot episode, but was up 84,000 viewers to 1.47 million.
"
and thanks again :) in consequenece of these numbers it's likely to be cancelled or what do you think?
ReplyDeleteVery hard to say for shows on channels like ABC Family. It's not always so obvious how they determine renewal/cancellation. I'd say it's probably in danger if I was a betting man.
ReplyDeleteWe'll be sure to post any news on Renewal/Cancellation as soon as we have it.
ok thanks :)
ReplyDeleteReally hoping H8R goes next, though the CW doesn't usually cancel mid-season. Wouldn't mind seeing Whitney and Hart of Dixie change place with Nikita and Parks & Recreations on the table.
ReplyDeleteWhy is Nikita in danger if it pulls in the same numbers as Supernatural? It's a young show and has similar numbers, a growing passionate fanbase, great reviews and significant international viewership. Maybe its being groomed into something comparable to Supernatural, hence sticking it on Friday with a show that has similar demos. Supernatural has the advantage of being on 7 seasons already. Do these factors contribute to Nikita's viability? I would say "yes".
ReplyDeletei think Secret Cicle is safe for renewal not in danger its averaged a 1.0 A18-49 vs the 0.88 average plus is doing well in W18-34 and theres no way 5 shows of the CW can be in danger theres just no way i think you should compare it to how the CW averages and compare it too that cause the CW wont cancel 5 shows thus 5 shows cant be in danger maybe 2 or 3 at the most being Gossip Girl, 90210, Nikita IMO
ReplyDeleteI think "How to be a Gentleman" got cancelled last night
ReplyDeleteI thought it was just moved? Not officially cancelled yet. but yes, as good as :)
ReplyDeleteha yeah probably
ReplyDeleteIt looks like there IS a fate worse than being consigned to Friday night ;-)
ReplyDeleteI wonder if Ruled of Engagement will be able to capitalize on the lucky break; or is it already too late.
Shouldn't Spn be higher? When all the CW shows are so low and more than half of them in the danger zone, the more shows of the same channel are in trouble, the more chances for Spn to get renew
ReplyDeleteEvery single shows at the CW are dropping, SPN is around the 4th place of the channel in ratings, doing that while being on friday night, so it's not as bad as it look
ReplyDeleteI thought that Up All Night was picked for a full season, not that makes any diference for me since I don't follow that show :p
ReplyDeleteThanks, yes it was. I'll make sure the chart if updated when we next post the table.
ReplyDeleteI think Homeland is missing on the list.
ReplyDeleteIt's not on the main broadcast networks.
ReplyDeleteFringe already in dangerous. This season will be dramatic.
ReplyDeleteThanks, we do try to post some of their ratings occasionally.
ReplyDeleteIf you click on the Ratings label you should fine them :)
Yep, it makes me sad as well :(
ReplyDeleteYep, exactly :) We only really have time and resources to track the main networks. The other cable and premium ratings have a differnent set of criteria for renewing / cancelling shows which makes the table unreliable etc.
ReplyDeleteYep, they are not on the main broadcast networks that we cover
ReplyDeleteWe might do at some point, thanks for the suggestion.
ReplyDeleteThis is a very useful article! But here's an ideia: Why don't you put another section in this table? The already "Picked up for a full season" shows? What do you think of this?
ReplyDeleteI miss a few shows in here: American
ReplyDeleteHorror Story, Homeland and Being Erica
Ah! there's the reason! Then all the shows from Showtime, Fx, SyFy, HBO and others are not on this predictor! Ok then. Thanks for the reply :)
ReplyDeleteI tremble each time I see Fringe in this predictor table! Danger...danger...danger...Whyyyyyyy! :(
ReplyDeleteI hope it doesn't get canceled but if it will at least I hope it gets a good final
Cool, I understand! despite I'm curious how homeland and american horror story are doing I really understand that you can't put all shows from every networks!
ReplyDeleteKeep on the good work and thanks :)
It should expand when you click on it.
ReplyDeleteIts too small D:
ReplyDeleteWell with How to be A gentleman moved to a Saturday night time slot is certain DEATH for the series
ReplyDeletenow Mary Lynn Rajskub can work with Kiefer Sutherland on Fox's Feb 2012 Touch , she posted they finished this CBS ep 12 last week .
The good news for CW fans is that this network can afford to cancel far fewer shows than most. Being in the yellow is not quite as dire as other networks.
ReplyDeleteHey Andy,
ReplyDeleteDont see the chart. is it down or something?
Thanks.
LouieLou
Yep, I'll see if I can fix it when I get home
ReplyDeleteShould be fixed now Luis.
ReplyDeleteWe have to get Fringe out of this Danger zone.
ReplyDeleteIt's so funny to see EVERY CW show either in the cancelled section or in or near the endangered section. XD
ReplyDeleteObviously they won't cancel them all, but it makes for some tense fans I'm sure.
I think you mean the "In Danger" section ;)
ReplyDeleteen deed...
ReplyDeleteI think ABC is in the hopes of getting an audience boost for Charlie's Angels with this next episode featuring Erica Durance. Because, otherwise, why haven't they cancelled that already?
ReplyDeleteMaybe it because its late but i can find Homeland.
ReplyDeleteHomeland is not on the major Broadcast Networks.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the fast replay. Is that good news ? meaning if the rating are steady they wont cancel it ?
ReplyDeleteThe Cable/Pay channels are much harder to predict on the viewing numbers alone. It's one of the many reasons we don't add it to the table as it's so hard to predict :)
ReplyDeleteWe don't have the ratings numbers for the 2nd episode yet so it's just too early to even begin to guess about a 2nd Season.
Thank you for the explanation. And i just saw this trailer on the FB page of Dexter. Dont remember seeing it before.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2C5x7UQNHo&feature=player_embedded
Thanks I'll take a look and post if new.
ReplyDeleteI actually really liked Free Agents....
ReplyDeleteWerehouse 13 on fb prety sure its new:
ReplyDeletehttp://video.syfy.com/shows/warehouse13/promos_trailers_5/warehouse-13--holiday-episode--sneak-peek/v1361298
Im not sure what to think about this but it was posted on the Eureka FB page.
ReplyDeletehttp://video.syfy.com/shows/eureka/promos_trailers_2/eureka--holiday-episode--sneak-peek/v1361273
do you include the Live+7 18-49 ratings? i understand, of course, that we can't be sure how much those are considered buy the network, but you know, it's 21th Century :)
ReplyDeleteYep, we include a whole range of ratings in our formula :)
ReplyDeleteThanks mate....
ReplyDeleteThank God Fringe is the exception.
ReplyDeleteOh, Dear Lord of the series in crisis, Hart of Dixie entering the danger zone... NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! At the very least, Charlie's Angels should get axed first.
ReplyDeleteIn canada "network/broadcast" refers to the following:
ReplyDeleteCBC, CTV, CTV2, City, Global
"cable" - refers to things like Discovery, Showcase, HGTV etc.
US would be "network / broadcast" of
ABC, CBS, NBC,FOX, CW
"cable" - discovery, TNT, TBS, USA, FX ...
Wow the CW shows aren't very successful this year. I think they are all good but hoping we get to see them at least one year.
ReplyDeleteIs the math formula available somewhere in this site?
ReplyDeleteI'm afraid not, we're constantly changing and tweeking it to make it more accurate and some of the data is entered manually in various different spreadsheets. There is not one large forumula but a series of formulas for the different ratings/rankings etc etc
ReplyDeleteTerra Nova is safe? That's encouraging, but are you sure? I mean, everyone says it performs below the ratings
ReplyDeleteIt's safe according to our calculations. But as we say, no system is 100% accurate. If you look at last year there were some surprises like Fringe getting renewed and Criminal Minds Suspect Behaviour getting cancelled etc
ReplyDeleteWell, considering CMSB was on CBS, I would call it an aberration, and perhaps you should introduce a CBS modifier in the formula :) Having that in mind, plus Fringe being a sort of Friday night clut favorite, and FOX not having anything else to show (fortunately!), I would say your calculations are as good as any. And I guess this week's bump for TN is a good sign
ReplyDeleteHa yes, I think I need a modifier for a few of them :)
ReplyDeleteYep, at the moment TN is doing ok. Obviously FOX would like better ratings but it's not in trouble just yet. Also the overseas sales have been pretty strong I believe.
Nice...I was always interested in the overseas data, is there any site tracking that?
ReplyDeleteUnfortunatly nothing like that exists as far as I can find. We get the odd snippet from sites like deadline.com and from the occasional Network press release etc but there is no nice table available. I guess the networks try to keep those numbers to themselves unless they have a massive success and then PR the crap out of it.
ReplyDeletesad, hart of dixie is a really nice show
ReplyDeleteLOLooOLL
ReplyDeleteA suggestion/ request: Is there a way to access a excel version of this table instead the image format?
ReplyDelete