After a week off, I'm back with another Ratings Five-Spot! You'd think November would be a really exciting time for TV ratings since everything is all new for most of the month, but with few premieres and almost everything "settled in" at predictable ratings, it's actually not that interesting. I couldn't come up with much of anything for last week, and this week I'm just going to look back at some general trends of this November sweep. If you follow my blog, you know that during the sweeps periods (when almost all shows are airing new episodes) I like to take a look at
how each show is doing compared to last year. This is a good way to gauge the general "healthiness" of both shows and networks. Here are some of my findings from November:
- Comedy's Year - In case you haven't heard, it's the "year of the comedy." We're in a TV environment where almost all shows are constantly losing Nielsen audience from year to year, but this year has seen a huge wave of comedies on a simultaneous upswing. Almost all comedies on ABC and CBS are either up from last year's airings or improving on whatever aired in the same timeslot last year. The two biggest scripted shows on TV have been Two and a Half Men and Modern Family, but those growths have big causes you can point to; Men had the Charlie Sheen/Ashton Kutcher transition, and Modern Family is riding its total domination at the Emmy Awards.
I just wanted to point out that How I Met Your Mother is also having by far its strongest ratings season yet despite no obvious explanation. In fact, it's come even though much of the Internet buzz suggests the show's creatively best days are long past. I think most people credit the Two and a Half Men upswing for helping the whole night, but we're at a point now where HIMYM is consistently up more year-to-year than even Men itself. This show is now clearly doing something great in its own right.
- ABC's Newbies - A big part of a network's "health" is the performance of the new product they're putting in play. This fall, the winner in that department is ABC. Though many of their returning shows are way down, they have multiple new shows making huge strides on what ABC had in their timeslots last year. Their one big hit is the new drama Once Upon a Time, and it's been more than 80% ahead of last year's Extreme Makeover: Home Edition in the Sunday 8:00 timeslot. Last week, they had two other shows up more than 60% in their timeslots - Last Man Standing and Revenge. And a fourth new show, Suburgatory, has been trending more than 20% ahead of last year's newbie Better with You.
Why does this matter outside of just patting those shows on the back? It means they have fewer timeslots available at midseason for their long list of shows on the shelf. Perhaps that success has contributed in part to the cutting of Cougar Town's episode order (from 22 to 15) and to Pan Am getting just 14 episodes while last year's similarly-rated Detroit 1-8-7 got 18. It's a nice problem to have from the network's standpoint, but some shows have to be a victim of their network's success.
- Fox's Dramas - One thing I've noticed but that nobody really seems to be talking about is the plight of the Fox drama. Last week, Glee, House and Fringe were among the top five largest show decliners. All were down well over 30%. House may be back next year, and Glee almost certainly will return. But these declines should continue, and these shows' days as tentpoles should be over by then (if they're not already). Couple those with a disappointing and expensive Terra Nova, and they just don't have much going on. Their only decent news is Bones, about even with last year, but even that owes some credit to its good X Factor lead-in. These drama struggles may reduce the ratings pressure on upcoming newbies like The Finder, Touch and Alcatraz.
- NBC's Comedies - The one big exception to the "year of the comedy" trend has got to be NBC's sagging Thursday lineup, and it starts with the show that's held it all together for years. The Office has been down more than 20% on average when comparing this year's November sweep with last year's. It's clear the loss of Steve Carell has not been weathered as easily as it might have appeared in the high-rated stunt episodes immediately following his departure. But the even grimmer reality for NBC is that, even with those drops, they still don't have any other scripted shows doing anything near Office numbers. Community, which NBC "benched" to great outcry last week, is also down about 20% from last year, perhaps suffering from The Big Bang Theory's upswing in the same timeslot. And the new shows don't offer much promise either, with Up All Night and Whitney struggling to even pull 2.0 demos. At midseason, NBC will move Up All Night to the easier post-Office timeslot and try to build it into something. For their sake, let's hope it happens.
- Friday's Exiles - I'm not exactly breaking any news here, but the shows taking the biggest declines from last year are almost all shows that got moved to Friday. Nobody's made the transition in the admirable way Supernatural did last year. Fringe, Chuck, Nikita and even reality like Extreme Makeover: Home Edition frequently rank among the shows down the most from their year-ago ratings. It's always tricky figuring out how much of an "adjustment" a network makes for Friday ratings. My educated guesses? I'd say Nikita (down 30%+ throughout this sweep) has at least some chance to survive at its borderline level. Fringe is most likely done after this season, and there will definitely be no reprieve for Chuck.
For more in-depth TV ratings coverage every day, check out my blog at SpottedRatings.com or follow me on Twitter: @spotupj.
Good to have you back Spot!
ReplyDeleteYep, totally agree about FOX, not seen much coverage on their troubles. I guess the NBC ratings or lack of are taking up most column inches.
Welcome back spot! Glad to see this feature back on again.
ReplyDeleteI'm slowly becoming obsessed with ratings lol I guess it's not healthy
Great stuff... always one of the more interesting reads of the week! :)
ReplyDeleteI will never forgive ABC for canceling Boston Legal. That was my favorite show, and i still haven't found anything like it. I don't care if they will lose all of their rating and die.
ReplyDeleteI realy wish 2 and a half men were down.Aston Kurtcher Is not funny.And he Is no Charlie Sheen on screen.Of course he Is trying to be him offscreen now.
ReplyDeleteOn friday shows Fringe Is most likely done for at end of season.Fox has given them more chances for survival than most shows.Nikita has chance for survival because besides the Vampire Diaries most CW
shows don't do that great.There Isn't a whole lot of difference between the ratings of Nikita and
Supernatural.It wouldn't shock me If at end of season both were canned.But It also wouldn't surprise me
If their combo continues next year.You can see now SMallville could bring people to stay home on
fridays.Supernatural Is defently hurting without Smallville as leadin on Fridays.
I understand you perfectly.That was great show.Just Imagne the kind of stories they could be doing now.I was very pissed for them cancling V.If it wasn't for the fact writers/Producers of Lost were behind Once upon a time I wouldn't have given that a chance.Besides The Simpsons I refuse to watch anything on Fox.Canceling DollHouse was last straw.And can I say why didn't they give Firefly all the chances they gave Fringe.And Fox makes It easy with the shows they do
ReplyDeleteput on the air.After cancling Heroes and the Event I have no desire to watch anything on NBC.
And they make It easy with what shows they do have on.I watch 4 shows on the CW however besides The Vampire Diaires 3 of them could end at end of season(Hart of Dixie,Ringer,Nikita)
Awesome, thanks!
ReplyDeleteThanks Dark.
ReplyDeleteI think the reason people don't talk about Fox is because the network as a whole is way up. But the only real reason for that is The X Factor. And even it hasn't been a huge hit, it's just been way bigger than the weak stuff they had in those timeslots last year. If you break down the rest of their schedule beyond that, there are definitely concerns.
Yep, Terra Nova is moving in the wrong direction, I really can't see how it will survive especially given the cost etc
ReplyDeleteI cannot agree any more strongly about Boston Legal!
ReplyDeleteIt was one of the most original, funny and thought-provoking series on TV with a steady almost 10million strong viewership. The only bad thing about the series from a network perceptive was that it had a cast with leads all over 45 and most over 55. despite screwing with the series and moving it from time slot to time slot and night to night it remained solid in ratings and yet they cancelled it.
I will never respect ANY network as long as they cater their series to the 18-35 demographic and not to creating quality TV! I realize that will be forever or at least as long as the networks get their money from commercials and sponsors.
There is a very simple reason the best dramas on TV are on cable (or in the UK), they care about the quality of their series before they worry about the age of the viewers.
There are of course exceptions to the rule (like The Good Wife or Blue Bloods), but most network dramas are gimmick fueled and overly formulaic.
Rant over. Apologies.
Hope your right about Nikita been nervous since the Friday night shaft, would love to get more Fringe but the show just doesn't do well in ratings
ReplyDeleteGreat stuff as usual!
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting that dramas seem to be down across the board not just on FOX, but they certainly are the spearhead of ratings woes compared to last season. I wonder if it's cyclical? Comedies are up this year pretty much across the board (sorry NBC)... maybe in 5 years they will all be down and dramas will once again rule their nights...
wow, really interesting, thanks! I didn't expect miracles, but I'm disappointed that that Chuck fans didn't rally behind the show a bit more when it made its move to Friday. After five years of fighting, I thought more people would support the show on its last leg, but it seems like it's just dying slowly.
ReplyDeleteThanks Darque. I had actually meant to write something similar but it slipped my mind. You are totally right that it's cyclical. Dramas dominated for pretty much all of the '00s, and the network schedules still reflect that... the networks are still giving well over twice as much air time to dramas vs. comedies. I'd expect those numbers to shift much more in comedy's favor over the next couple years. But comedies won't dominate forever either.
ReplyDeleteI really hope Nikita survives!!!! love it!!!!
ReplyDeleteThanks! :)
ReplyDeleteThanks!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the big picture view. It's too easy for me to tunnel vision in on only those shows I'm worried about so to see the overall look helps a lot. Have to say that for the first time in ages, I am watching ABC. I literally had to look up the channel at the start of this season so I could watch the premiere of Castle. Now I watch 3 of their shows.
ReplyDeleteI was one of those aggravated at NBC for pulling Community. None of the new comedies have struck me so I pretty much concentrate on Raising Hope and Community. Other than that, it's drama for me.
One thing I've noticed but that nobody really seems to be talking about is the plight of the Fox drama. Last week, Glee, House and Fringe were among the top five largest show decliners. All were down well over 30%.- yeah no thats all i hear about *runs and cries*well now im depressed again
ReplyDeleteI'm loving Once Upon a Time & glad that Supernatural is still going strong. Too bad about Fringe though.
ReplyDelete