In case you missed last week's edition, this is a weekly feature at SpoilerTV where I break down the five biggest TV ratings stories of each week. There was so much going on during premiere week that I really had trouble boiling it all down to a "Five-Spot"! What I'll do is look at the really big story of premiere week, then a winner and a loser both among the new shows and the returning shows. Here's the premiere week Ratings Five-Spot:
- Two and a Half Men - Everyone expected Ashton Kutcher's debut on Two and a Half Men would be big. But this big? I see entertainment journalists say they were "great ratings" and, while I guess that's true, it seems like the understatement of the year! To try to put Two and a Half Men's 28.74 million viewers and 10.7/25 adults 18-49 rating in perspective, here are a handful of notable accomplishments for that 10.7 18-49 rating:
| Event | Since… | Previous High | Note |
| Biggest regular scripted episode of TV | 2/22/07 | 11.6 | Conclusion of Grey's Anatomy ferry arc |
| Biggest scripted comedy episode | 5/16/05 | 11.2 | Everybody Loves Raymond finale |
| Biggest Two and a Half Men ratings | Ever | 8.1 | Aired after Everybody Loves Raymond finale on 5/16/05 |
| Bigger than any 2010-11 regular scripted episode | Ever | 5.9 | Glee's Britney Spears episode on 9/28/10 |
- Also benefiting in a big way were the shows that surrounded Two and a Half Men. The 8:30 episode of How I Met Your Mother got a 5.2 A18-49 rating, its highest in series history. And leading out of Men was the premiere of 2 Broke Girls, whose 7.1 A18-49 rating was the biggest for a new scripted series launch since Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles back in January 2008. CBS noted it was the biggest audience for a comedy debut since Inside Schwartz in 2001.
- The bottom line: any time you have to dig this far back in the history books is a real stunner, because we're in a day and age when broadcast TV ratings are constantly on the decline.
- Oh yeah, and on that same night, Comedy Central aired its roast of Charlie Sheen to nearly eight million viewers. It was their highest-rated roast ever and about doubled the ratings of some recent ones. Overall, a pretty #winning night for all parties involved in the saga of Charlie Sheen. Was all this a sign of CBS Monday dominance to come or just a really weird statistical anomaly? That's what we'll learn in the coming weeks.
- New Show Winner: New Girl (Fox) - Outside of the huge 2 Broke Girls launch, there was one other great piece of news among premiere week's big launches: the Zooey Deschanel-led comedy New Girl. It opened up with 10.28 million viewers and a stout 4.8 A18-49 rating, meaning it (like 2 Broke Girls) had a stronger 18-49 start than any new scripted show from last season. Fox, a network particularly notable for its failures in live-action half-hour comedy, has got to be over the moon with this start. It did more than 50% better than Raising Hope's premiere in the same half-hour last year, and that's pretty amazing considering Glee was actually almost 30% weaker at 8:00. Will it hold up? Probably not completely, but it's worth wondering if some folks who sampled through the various pre-air avenues might show up for week two. I typically don't read much into those situations, since online viewing is still small compared to TV viewing, but iTunes claims over two million watched New Girl via its free download. Honorable Mention: Pan Am (ABC).
- New Show Loser: Prime Suspect (NBC) - There's a saying in sports that the season can't be won in the first few weeks, but it can be lost. New TV shows are like that too. A show can start great and ultimately fail, but it's very rare to start poorly and then blossom into something. So the biggest definites from premiere week are always the things that flop out of the gate. There weren't multiple massive premiere week failures like last season, but the two weakest starts belonged to NBC dramas The Playboy Club (5.20 million viewers, 1.6 A18-49 on Monday) and Prime Suspect (6.05 million viewers, 1.8 A18-49 on Thursday). I think Suspect is the bigger disappointment because it had a much bigger lead-in and was a "safer" choice thematically. NBC's in terrible shape across the board, so these shows may not be yanked immediately, but neither seems to have a long-term future. The only good news for Prime Suspect is that it won't have to face Grey's Anatomy next week (it had a two-hour premiere extending into the 10:00 hour), so let's see if it can defy the odds. Dishonorable Mentions: The Playboy Club (NBC), Charlie's Angels (ABC).
- Returning Winner: Modern Family (ABC) - Premiere week developments have got a lot of people calling this the "year of the comedy." The most flashy examples were the CBS Monday comedies described above, but a big shout-out has also got to go to ABC's Modern Family. Three days after cleaning up at the Emmys, its third season premiered with 14.53 million viewers and a 6.1 A18-49 rating, both easily the highest numbers of the series to date. That 6.1 made it another show (along with Two and a Half Men and 2 Broke Girls) to exceed the highest-rated regular scripted programming of all of last season. Honorable Mentions: The Middle (ABC), Castle (ABC), The Big Bang Theory (CBS).
- Returning Loser: Nikita (CW) - Last week, I mentioned the CW's strategy of rolling out their shows early. That tends to set them up for a brutal traditional opening week when everything else comes back in premiere mode. This year was particularly tough, with the decent Secret Circle and Ringer launches of last week both plummeting below the 1.0 A18-49 threshold and all the returnees dropping at least two tenths. Perhaps the worst news of all came on Friday, when Supernatural took a huge dip from last season's premiere numbers (nearly 40%). Maybe even more alarming was the season two premiere of Nikita, which got just a 0.6 A18-49 and couldn't even manage half of what Smallville got in its timeslot last year. That 0.6 made it the CW's weakest original program not named H8R. Most networks are used to having their weakest shows on Friday, but Smallville and Supernatural were among the CW's strongest last year. Supernatural has proven it isn't impossible to make a successful transition to the so-called "Friday death slot," but it looks like Nikita's proving it isn't exactly easy either. Dishonorable Mentions: Harry's Law (NBC), Glee (Fox), Supernatural (CW).
Thanks Spot. I had no idea that the Two Men ratings were that large and historically significant.
ReplyDeleteInteresting about Prime Suspect. How does it compare to say a show like Castle which seems a ratings loser in it's first Season but now is somewhat of a powerhouse?
I hope they don't cancel Nikita,I love the show and don't want to see it end so soon!
ReplyDeleteSupernatural 0.8/3 2.01 million viewers
ReplyDeleteThird most watched program on the CW last week in terms of overall viewers. Secret Circle had 2.12million viewers last week. Ringer 1.94mil
It's not really so much that The CW's shows aren't doing the greatest, it's the network as a whole that's having some serious issues keeping up these days.
ReplyDeleteI guess the problem is that The CW automatically always loses when compared to other networks. They can't seem to get any demo ratings even close to 2.0 or viewership past 3 million. They didn't used to be this far down. So, for the CW in its current state, sure, the ratings are fine, but in the larger context, they lose.
ReplyDeleteI will look forward to these articles each week :). I see the daily ratings, but it's nice to put everything in context for a whole week.
ReplyDeleteYep, I totally agree. The bigger picture look and the context behind the numbers is always a fascinating read.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be surprised if The Playboy Club gets cancelled after 1 more episode!!!
ReplyDeleteSharon, Castle started with a 3.0 in 18-49, then dropped into the low 2's and never really picked up until late season 2. So you're correct that it's possible for a marginal show to pick up after a long stretch of mediocre ratings. The question is whether Prime Suspect can just get enough ratings to even stay around for that long.
ReplyDeleteCadence basically nailed it. Supernatural could very well be OK, and I agree the CW has several bigger problems at the moment, but that says more about the CW as a whole than anything. I still think the big drop from last year is worth mentioning.
ReplyDeleteLoving these 5-spots!
ReplyDeleteThanks Spot. I knew about the Two Men rating but I had no idea of the significance! But there is still an entire season to get through and we'll have to see I think if it is going to continue as a power house.
ReplyDeleteSupernatural is lower on the ratings but it is an aged show and all but really what does this say about the CW? In the six years it has been around it hasn't had rating wins and has always come in last after the other four big networks. Hopefully with the new president that will change.
Thanks Spot. I guess my memory was failing me as I thought Castle was lower.
ReplyDeleteAs a big fan of the UK version I was hoping that the US one would do well.
I wonder if more people will tune into The New Girl or if it will stabilize as well. I was one of those people who viewed the pilot early, and didn't watch again. But I will be watching tonight.
ReplyDeleteI like Prime Suspect, this serie must continue
ReplyDeleteThanks spot, I love this new bit, as I generally don't know the mean behind the rating news. I had no idea the rating for Two and Half men was that big. Really like the idea of the dishonorable and honorable mentions at the end of the 5 stories
ReplyDeleteSorry, no. Cadence didn't nail it and JMC00 is right. The question of whether the show will survive and whether the network will survive are separate issues. When the question of renewal comes up, the network will never look at how the show did relative to other network shows on at the same time. It will only look at how the show did relative to other shows on the same network and (critically) whether the network could do better in that slot.
ReplyDeleteSupernatural is doing well compared to other shows on the network and its ratings are unlikely to be topped in the same slot (Nikita's failure in the relatively easier 8pm Friday slot only emphasizes that). In addition, the network looks at what it has to replace the show. The CW can only afford to bring out two or three new shows each season and several CW shows are doing worse than Supernatural (and I mean, they premiered lower than Supernatural, not just what they did this week, as SPN will likely drop next week).
So, for example, Fringe did far better than Supernatural in the same time slot, but in comparison to other FOX shows, it continues to be the disaster that got it sent to Friday night Coventry last season (So, why isn't it on your Dishonorable Mentions list? Wishful thinking?). Also, FOX has more shows to replace it and is much quicker on the cancellation trigger than the CW. Therefore, Fringe is in much worse trouble than Supernatural right now.
As for the network's health, obviously, the CW is a joke when it comes to ratings. Also obviously, its current state fits *somebody's* business model well because there have been no signs it's on its deathbed, aside from the usual naysayers insisting that yes, indeedy, this will be the year it dies (as they've been saying for about four years, now). I'd be unsurprised if its execs keep it around until its ten-year contract with its affiliates comes up for renewal in 2016.
As JMC00 noted with the DVR ratings, Supernatural does very well with those. In fact, ironically, if you look up the numbers, pretty much the same number of people still watch SPN as have since at least season three; the number that's declined is the number of people who watch it live. But that's true for every show on network TV.
It's not really about the ratings. It's *never* really about the ratings. It's always about using the ratings as hook to fish for advertisers. There's no reason the CW can't draw in advertisers, for example, with the promise of a loyal fanbase. That's valuable.
Thanks, Paula. The honorable/dishonorable mentions lists are not necessarily based on the worst raw numbers performances. They're also based on comparisons to expectations and to last year's performance, because those are things you can use to forecast further drops. For example, Glee's 4.0 A18-49 also wouldn't remotely put it in trouble on Fox, but the fact that it's almost 30% down from last year bodes poorly for the rest of the season.
ReplyDeleteI suppose I should have been a little more clear about this nuance, but those lists were not about "what's getting axed now?", more about "what am I worried about going forward based on premiere week?" I'm just not quite as laser-focused on immediate renewability. I don't think we have a major disagreement on what matters; I agree losing to the other shows in the timeslot is not a problem exclusive to Supernatural among CW shows or something that hurts Supernatural at all. But I do think the year-to-year thing matters; many shows have been relatively competitive within their networks but gotten axed because of big drops year-to-year (because it means further big drops are likely the next season).
As far as the Fringe comparison: you can make an argument for it on this list, as it was down about 20% from last year's premiere. But it was about in line with its Friday average and ahead of several later episodes from last year, while Supernatural was down almost 40% and right at the bottom end of last season's ratings. We already knew last year that Fringe was on the low end of Fox shows, and this performance didn't meaningfully change its (admittedly shaky) standing.