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Hostages - Season Finale - Preview: Who will survive?

We're a few days away from the first Hostages season finale (and likely also its series finale). Although most previews are written after having seen a screener, sadly that oppotunity didn't present itself for these episodes. However, that doesn't stop me from still writing a preview. The only difference is that the preview is based entirely on my own predictions/experiences and not on actual footage that I've seen (besides promos/sneak peeks etc.). Anyway, in this preview I will rank the survival chances of the cast and the most important recurring characters.

Dr. Ellen Sanders: 85% chance of survival
Being the main protagonist of the show doesn't necessarily mean you're safe. Still, I think she will come out of the finale pretty much unscratched. Even though the bosses want to eliminate everybody after the assassination, I just don't see Ellen dying. She has put up quite a fight over the course of the season and she will continue to fight in the finale. Probably the worst thing that could happen to her is being arrested by the Secret Service, but at least that is a likely guarantee for her safety.
Brian Sanders: 60%
Much like Ellen, Brian has fought his captors the entire season: from getting shot to let his family escape to almost killing Duncan with the poison that was meant for the president. And he is sure to put up a fight in the finale too, as he is seen pointing a gun at an unknown target. Unfortunately, Brian is not much of a shooter (and killer) as his captors are. Yes, he managed to get the upper hand on Duncan and infect him with the poison, but in a gunfight he would probably loose to Duncan, Sandrine, Archer and Kramer. And if he dies, and Nina dies too, that would clear the way for a future for Ellen and Duncan.
Morgan Sanders: 90%
While nothing is impossible, I don't see them killing of a pregnant teenager. She is still in the residence full of dangerous people, but I am sure Ellen, Brian and Duncan are working on a plan to get her out of the house safely.
Jake Sanders: 95%
In the last episode, Jake got safely away from the house after Duncan shot him to fake his death. I believe that makes him pretty safe as he is in a completely different place than his captors are. Sandrine and Archer might suspect that Duncan didn't really shoot Jake, but even if they did they wouldn't have time to look into it as there are other and more dangerous problems to solve. Jake's homesickness did lead him to make a very stupid mistake (see episode 1.05), but I'd like to think he learned his lesson.
Sandrine Gonzales: 45%
Sandrine works for the enemy! At the end of episode 13, Archer discovers Sandrine's betrayal when he finds the car bombs. Fortunately for her, Duncan will choose not to eliminate her but instead use her to get his wife and daughter back. Although that makes her pretty safe from Duncan's team, we have no idea what will happen after Duncan has Nina and Sawyer back (considering that happens). It's possible that Logan chooses to get rid of her when he discovers she double-crosses them. Also, although Kramer won't kill her, there is a chance that Archer does and maybe even Duncan.
Archer Petit: 50%
Thus far, Archer has been on Duncan's good side most of the time. But he is a rough guy who is only in this for the money. He has no emotional attachment to anyone and is not afraid to kill somebody. In the promo, he is also seen attacking Duncan which could lead to his demise.
Kramer Delaney: 55%
Basically, Kramer has no reason to die. Even though he has killed a limo driver, he ultimately is not a real bad guy. He is only in this to save his sister, who is not even really his sister. Also, he and Sandrine got romantic and even though he might take Sandrine's betrayal very serious, he will eventually forgive her. Unfortunately, that doesn't make him safe. On the contrary, that might make him more of a target. I don't think Sandrine would really kill her lover, but we can't really trust her. Kramer's death could also work another way: it could have Sandrine turn on Logan and the rest to extract revenge.
Duncan Carlisle: 75%
I don't believe Duncan will get himself killed in the process, he is too smart for that. Also, if he would die, wouldn't the team basically fall apart? After all, Duncan's wife is the ultimate reason they're doing this. He might be a goner in the end, but my bet is Duncan will survive.
President Paul Kincaid: 45%
Although Ellen said she is not going to kill the president, there are plenty more people who want him dead. He has escaped death twice thanks to Ellen and Duncan, but maybe Blair & co will get lucky the third time. Plus, Nina really needs his bone marrow to survive, and will Ellen really get that without killing him?
Nina Carlisle: 40%
Nina is a very sick woman. She is suffering from leukemia and her only chance of surviving is the president's bone marrow. Getting that part of the president's body is difficult enough, but she has also been captured by bad guy Blair. Although it is unlikely he will kill her (he will use her as leverage against Duncan instead), she might ultimately be lost in the process. Also, if she dies and Brian dies too, Duncan and Ellen can have a future together.
Sawyer Carlisle: 95%
I don't picture this show killing an innocent child. Of all the people on this show, she is the most innocent.
Burton Delaney: 60%
Although he is not one of the captors, he is still involved in the assassination plot. That alone puts him at danger. Also, the show might somebody to make the ultimate sacrifice.
First Lady Mary Kincaid: 90%
Just like Sawyer, FLOTUS has stayed far away from the assassination plot. Although there are various possible twist that could include her death (she was behind the assassination plot all the way, Blair kidnaps her to get to Vanessa), I believe she is pretty safe.
Colonel Thomas Blair: 55%
Blair is the big mastermind of the assassination plot. His plan was to become president after Kincaid died, but his lover Vanessa put a snag in that plan when she wanted to run for presidency. When the assassination plot will be discovered, Blair might die in the process. Of course, he could just as easily be arrested. There is also a chance that Vanessa gets deadly and has Blair killed.
Vanessa Moore: 50%
Vanessa was quick to betray Blair when the opportunity presented itself, something that might cost her her life. She could also be killed when she is unmasked as one of the masterminds of the plot. Or maybe her sister kills her in revenge for wanting to kill her husband (that last one seems very unlikely though).
Secret Service Agent Logan: 45%
He is not at the top, nor at the bottom of the assassination plan. That makes him a liability from two sides. He is hardly needed anymore, as Duncan has another way of getting the bone marrow from the president. I don't think Blair really needs him either.

Who do you think is going to die in the finale? Check out the promo below!

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