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SpoilerTV - TV Spoilers

Ratings News - 4th October 2013

4 Oct 2013

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Today's Early Top 25 Market's - 18-49 Ratings

The Big Bang Theory 5.2.
Scandal 4.3
Millers 3.0
Sean Saves the World 1.8
Elementary 1.7
Parenthood 1.5
Welcome to the Family 1.4

Today's Early Overnight Ratings

This table shows the early overnight ratings. These ratings are normally adjusted later in the day when all the ratings have been consolidated to take into account any local preemptions and/or overruns. You can find all the final adjusted numbers in our Ratings Database. (See the About section below for details about ratings)



Early Ratings Analysis

The analysis below is based on the early household numbers and are NOT the same as the numbers that will be posted in the above table later. (See the About section below)

For more information on the Nielsen Ratings see this Wikipedia Entry.

NOTE: The opinions expressed here are NOT those of SpoilerTV but of the Author of this Article, Marc Berman.

Metered Market Thursday Ratings
Mixed Results for the Quartet of Debuts

Thursday 10/03/13
Metered Market Results

Household
Rating/Share
CBS 7.6/13
ABC 6.6/11
Fox 4.1/ 7
NBC 3.1/ 5
CW 1.8/ 3

———-

-Percent Change from Year-Ago Evening – Thursday 10/04/12:
CW: +125, NBC: +15, ABC: + 8, CBS: -13, Fox: -28

———-

-Winners:
“The Big Bang Theory” (CBS), “The Millers” (CBS), “Grey’s Anatomy” (ABC), “Scandal” (ABC)

-Down by Still Dominant:
“The Crazy Ones” (CBS)

-Modest but an Improvement:
“Sean Saves the World” (NBC), “The Michael J. Fox Show” (NBC)

-Disappointing:
“The Originals” (CW)

-Losers (excluding repeats):
“Parks and Recreation” (NBC), “Welcome to the Family” (NBC), “Glee” (Fox), “Parenthood” (NBC)

———-

-Ratings Breakdown:
Ignited by “The Big Bang Theory,” CBS remains the network to beat on Thursday with a 15 percent advantage in the household overnights over second-place ABC. But, year-to-year, the Eye net slipped by 13 percent (versus an eight percent rise for ABC).

There were four series premieres – sitcoms “The Millers” on CBS and “Welcome to the Family” and “Sean Saves the World” on NBC, and drama “The Originals” on The CW. And the lead-in support from “The Big Bang Theory,” of course, gave “The Millers” the advantage. “The Millers” opened with a dominant 8.3 rating/14 share at 8:30 p.m., which was three percent below the year-ago season-premiere of former time period occupant “Two and a Half Men” (8.6/14 on 9/27/12). Comparably, retention for “The Millers” was 73 percent out of “The Big Bang Theory” (11.4/19 at 8 p.m.), which was expected. Consider this a positive start for “The Millers.”

Week two of sitcom “The Crazy One” with Robin Williams at 9 p.m. took a hit, as expected, with a loss of 25 percent (versus a 10.0/16 on Sept. 26). But the 7.5/12 in the overnights was still tops in the 9 p.m. half-hour (two-tenths of a rating point, or three percent, above the first half of “Grey’s Anatomy” on ABC). Relocated “Two and a Half Men” dipped to second at 9:30 p.m., with a 6.5/10 in the overnights. And the combination of “The Millers” and “Two and a Half Men” was 26 percent below year-ago occupant “Person of Interest” (9.4/14 on 10/04/12), which is not as strong now on Tuesday. While the comedies will hold an advantage over “Person of Interest” in the young demos, more expected erosion in the upcoming weeks could be detrimental. Stay tuned.

At 10 p.m., sophomore “Elementary” closed the night for CBS with a second-place 6.1/11, which was 23 percent below the third season-premiere of highly anticipated drama “Scandal” on ABC (7.9/14). Year-to-year, “Scandal” increased by a hefty 61 percent (versus a 4.9/ 8 on 10/04/12)., with growth out of “Grey’s Anatomy” of eight percent.

Earlier in the evening on ABC was a “Scandal” recap special at a third-place 4.6/ 8 at 8 p.m., followed by aforementioned “Grey’s Anatomy” at an above-average 7.3/12 from 9-10 p.m.

NBC had mixed results courtesy of its revamped two-hour sitcom block. “Parks and Recreation” remained out of the competitive loop, with a mere 2.5/ 4 in the overnights at 8 p.m. (#4). And it led into a 2.6/ 4 for the debut of “Welcome to the Family,” which was only a slight improvement from the 2.4/ 4 for former time period occupant “Up All Night” on the year-ago evening.

New Sean Hayes sitcom “Sean Saves the World” had a stronger opening reception at 9 p.m., with a third-place 3.8/ 6. And that, comparably, bested year-ago occupant “The Office” (3.1/ 5 on 10/04/12) by 19 percent. Week two (and episode three) of lead-out “The Michael J. Fox Show” lost considerable steam from its week-ago opener, with a 3.8/ 6 at 9:30 p.m. (#3) down by 28 percent from the average 5.3/ 9 in the overnights one week earlier. But this was still 52 percent above year-ago occupant “Parks and Recreation” (2.5/ 4 on 10/04/12). And it was three percent above the “Sean Saves the World” opener. If “Michael J. Fox” can settle in now (which is very unlikely, unfortunately) it could be a keeper.

The moral of the story: The NBC comedies have a limited audience on Thursday; that will not change this season. But 9-10 p.m. could be an improvement if “Sean Saves the World” and “The Michael J. Fox Show” hold up. “Welcome to the Family” was a huge disappointment.

Relocated “Parenthood” closed the night for NBC with a distant third-place 3.0/ 5 at 10 p.m., which was nine percent below last week’s season-premiere. And while this did improve by 15 percent from year-ago occupant “Rock Center With Brian Williams” (2.6/ 5 on 10/04/12), this is by no means positive.

Over at The CW, “The Vampire Diaries” spin-off “The Originals,” which is regularly scheduled in the Tuesday 8 p.m. hour (into relocated “Supernatural”) previewed with a 1.7/ 3 at 9 p.m. While the retention for “The Originals” out of the season-premiere of “The Vampire Diaries” (#5: 2.0/ 3) was positive at 85 percent, this was 29 percent below the series-debut of year-ago time period occupant “Beauty and the Beast” (2.4/ 4 on 10/11/12), which at the time faced the live Vice Presidential Debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan. That said, “Beauty and the Beast” was inflated, but “The Originals” opener is still a disappointment. Let’s see what the young adult demos look like.

Fox capped off the night with “The X Factor” (#2: 5.2/ 9), which slipped by 27 percent from the year-ago evening, and “Glee” (#4: 3.1/ 5), which was down by 30 percent from the 4.4/ 7 in the overnights one year earlier.

Source: Nielsen Media Research


Source: Marc Berman@tvmediainsights

About the Daily Ratings

Each day (except Sunday) during the main TV Season we post the TV Ratings for the previous nights primetime shows for the major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, NBC). Cable Network ratings will be added to the Ratings Database.

The first item that gets posted (normally around 2pm GMT) is the early overnight analysis based on the early household numbers (these are not the same as the Total Viewers and 18-49 Demo numbers that are posted later).

Next, if available, we will post the Top 25 Market 18-49 Ratings to give you a rough idea of the ratings to following.

Later on (normally between 4pm-5pm GMT) we post the official early overnight Total Viewers and 18-49 Demo numbers in the table above.

Finally, later in the evening (10pm-11pm GMT) or the following day, the final adjusted ratings numbers are released, these are then posted in the Ratings Database. The Final Adjusted numbers are what we use for all our Renew/Cancellation Tables, Full Season Tables, Ratings Scorecards etc (see below)

Additional Ratings Resources

If you’re interested in Ratings/Renewals/Cancellations then we have a number of resources here at SpoilerTV that we recommend you check out.

Renew/Cancel
Our Cancellation/Renewal predictions for the current season.
Ratings Database
Historical Ratings Database for nearly all major US shows going back to their first episodes.
Full Season Tables
The current season full ratings tables for both Total Viewers and 18-49 Demos
Ratings Scorecard
See how all the shows stack up against each other in the Ratings Scorecard Table.

58 comments:

  1. Scandal broke the rating system ;)

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  2. hahaha, I think Mr. Nielsen is still in shock.

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  3. I had exactly the same thing. Scandal's ratings are through the rough and they're double checking to make sure they're right :)

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  4. 4.3 in the top25 markets? Good Lord, Scandal is going for that 3.5+. Could we possibly see a 4.0?

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  5. Pretty amazing early numbers.

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  6. Scandal is a BEAST! I wouldn't be surprised if it got 3.5-4.0! Twitter was insane last night during Scandal.

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  7. OMG Elementary..... :(

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  8. As usual, The Big Bang Theory wins the night! 3+ Season Renewal here we come!

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  9. Now this is how it should be,numbers just the numbers,thank you DarkUFO! This was turning into a such a bitchfest.

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  10. Do you think it will hold? I don't think it can go higher than this.

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  11. And good for Scandal a show that really does seem to be gaining more viewers. Plus anything that puts rob60990 at TVBTN in his place is always a good thing!

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  12. The Millers only retained around 60% of TBBT's viewers?
    Also what about The Crazy Ones, I wanna know how well it did this week.

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  13. WOW! Scandal is a beast!!!!!!! That kind of number in the 10PM timeslot is AWESOME!

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  14. Question: Is the 4.3 solely for the 10 p.m. outing?

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  15. I would take the top 25 as a grain of salt for now. The numbers will definitely be high, but the top 25 are pretty unstable.
    Wait for the finals - a delay often means there's something holding up calculations

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  16. No, it's very unlikely that it will hold that for the early overnights or final adjusted numbers later on today but I think it's got a very good chance of being a series high.

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  17. Soo happy for Scandal!!!! Much deserved. This season is going to be insane!

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  18. He's just a idiot who spouts nonsense at shows he doesn't like.

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  19. It was a big episode?

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  20. Thought so. Oh well, one can dream, right?

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  21. I wonder how mad he got when he spotted that 4.3 - even if it was in the top 25 markets.

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  22. If he even responds, otherwise he'll just make up some excuse.

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  23. i hope michael j fox show picks up ratings it is one of the few new comdies worth watching..crazy ones pretty decent too

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  24. I bet he and all the Scandal haters will stay silent for the day.

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  25. Most likely. ;).

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  26. Really? You think the show is eligible for a new three-year deal? It previously got a three-year-deal for seasons 5, 6 and 7. You think they can pull that off again for seasons 8, 9 and 10? Would be amazing.

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  27. I'm so anxious for the final results...

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  28. Me too, what a bad day for ratings delays

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  29. Hehe, good thing I can keep myself busy by catching up on all my Thursday shows I haven't watched yet.

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  30. 3.6 for Scandal?! YES. Go, Scandal.

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  31. Ugh, I don't understand, even the good new comedies seem to be failing this season.

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  32. Right? None of the new comedies seem to be doing very well.

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  33. Upset about The Originals but then the Thursday 9pm slot is not exactly a great slot for any show (as we've seen over the past few years), but then nor is the Tuesday 8pm slot either. I'll guess we'll see next Tuesday if it can hold up. TVD did good, again not a 1.6 like last season but probably due to the fact that the Season 3 finale/4 premiere was a lot more anticipated than the Season 4 finale/5 premiere.

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  34. If we thought last year was a cancellation massacre, this year is gonna be even worse.

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  35. I think we may see some of the first sub-1.0 ratings for TVD this season.

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  36. Exactly, I don't know if this happened before but there are actually more new shows than returning ones this season

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  37. Yeah I think it is extremely likely too. I think both had disappointing premieres (ratings wise,I have yet to watch both). More TVD than the originals to be honest, since the second one was all about retention. I do wonder what kind of numbers it will pull on Tuesdays away from its lead-in facing shield. I hope this is not the shape of things to come for the cw or they will be in big trouble.

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  38. Exactly I have hope for The CW this season. Hoping TVD at least gets adjusted up, as it practically did every week last season. So a 1.6 to a 1.3 drop isn't too bad.

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  39. Yeah, I think this hasn't happened before, but it's mainly due to the "limited series", with one airing in the fall and another replacing it in the spring.

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  40. Yeah that's true. Adjustments really make a difference for the cw.

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  41. I doubt it. I think this year is going to be quite acceptable for new shows. The Blacklist, Sleepy Hollow (already), Agents of Shield at least should all be renewed, whereas there is still good hope for entries such as Intelligence, Almost Human, Wonderland, Chicago PD and maybe one or other NBC drama. Comedy wise, I think The Crazy Ones is sitting pretty and then there are a lot of potential candidates such as back in the game, super fun night, the goldbergs and the millers.

    Last year, the only non CW shows renewed were the following, revolution, Hannibal, Nashville, The Mindy Project, the neighbors and chicago fire. And even looking beyond the number itself, I think hannbial, Nashville, the Mindy project and the neighbors were reach renewals, as in, could have gone either way, and we could get a couple of those as well this season.

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  42. 7.9/14 overall YES

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  43. seriously I got votes down for basically hoping TVD gets adjusted up?

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  44. Joe Adalian ‏@TVMoJoe49m
    WORTH NOTING: NBC's Cleveland affiliate aired NFL Thursday football last night. NBC's numbers actually might be a bit inflated.


    Yikes!

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  45. I also get very angry with the downvotes, but we have to ignore them. Very stupid feature IMO because people don't know how to use them.

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  46. Those numbers are inflated? Yikes indeed.

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  47. It's not just you, it's the trolls that have been doing that.

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  48. Yeah I think Parenthood might be inflated. It's strange that it went up in its second week especially facing Scandal (though it's really not that different ratings wise from facing GA and there is probably even greater cross with GA)

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  49. I think there will be more new comedies cancelled as compared to Dramas. Right now the following news shows are very likely to get cancelled: Hostages, Betrayal, Ironside, Lucky 7, We Are Men, Dads, Welcome to the Family. There are a few that or on the bubble. From the shows yet to air I can say that Undateable, The Night Shift, Killer Women, Bad Teacher, Growing Up Fisher are the ones that look like they will be cancelled, but I could be wrong about a few.

    Also some returning shows are also not looking good.

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  50. I know that, but my point is that this season appears to be, by no means, worse than normal. Last year alone, the following fall shows didn't even last until winter or barely! Last Resort, 666 Park Avenue, Partners, The Mob Doctor, Up All Night, Made in Jersey, Ben and Kate, Animal Practice - these are 8 shows right there compared to the 7 you mentioned from this year, in a year where a lot more new shows were green lighted (49 this year vs. 35 last year), not even to mention everything else that got cancelled at the end of the year (vegas, malibu country, go on, the new normal, not even to mention all midseason shows). I think this year will be considerably better for new shows than last year.

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  51. I personally think The Originals did ok, kinda meh but not too bad. I think that comparing TO to BaTB is comparing Apples to Oranges because TO is not a brand new show. It's a spin-off and the viewers are already familair with most of its characters and made a decision of whether to watch or not in advance. It couldn't have opened as high as a totally brand new show. On the other hand, since the characters are known, I expect a smaller drop than a brand new show once it settles on Tuesdays, so I think it can potentially end this season with 0.6-0.7 ratings, that would (sadly for the CW) be enough for a renewal.

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  52. I'm amazed with Scandal!!!

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  53. Shonda has the touch baby Grey's 10 years strong and Scandal coming back with a vengeance i love it!!!!!!!!!

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  54. worldwithoutanend5 October 2013 at 08:27

    Scandal is a beast! YAY! So happy!

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  55. Ouch, they need to find a better slot for parenthood fast.

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