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SpoilerTV - TV Spoilers

SpoilerTV Cancellation Predictor Table 2012/13 *31st May*

31 May 2013

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Update: 31st May With the recent Renewal of Hannibal this brings the Cancellation Table fully up to date for another season. We'll see you all again in September :)


Update: 11th May Wow, crazy day yesterday with the huge number of cancellations/renewals. The table has been updated and we're just waiting on the fate of Hannibal before we finish another season of the Cancellation predictor table.

Overall I'm very pleased with the results as you can see.

- The top 29 shows predicted to be cancelled, were cancelled.
- The top 28 shows predicted to be renewed, were renewed.

Biggest shocks of the season for me.

- Carrie Diaries getting renewed
- How to Live With Your Parents getting cancelled (it's ratings were better than a number of other ABC shows)

Hope you have enjoyed following along with us here and we'll have a new Cancellation Prediction Table up and running for the 2013/14 season in a few months.

Welcome to this years SpoilerTV Cancellation Predictor.

Last year, each week, we updated our data (see the notes below about how we get our data) in order to see if we could predict which show(s) would be renewed or cancelled. As you can see from last years summary, we did pretty well, with the exception of Fringe, Whitney, and Terra Nova our table was pretty accurate. The top 14 shows predicated to be cancelled were indeed cancelled.

This index is by no means a 100% accurate guide about if your show is safe or in danger and should be seen as a bit of FUN.
NOTE: Until we have at least 3-4 weeks of data for each show that this table is not going to be very accurate and it will vary a lot each update. We'll try to update the full Cancellation Table every couple of days as we get new data in.

(Click to Enlarge - Updated 31st May 2013)
NOTES - Please Read:
1) The Higher the Index Rating the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety.
2) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate.
3) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC.
4) This chart is a prediction of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers, 18-49, and + 7 Numbers. These 3 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents etc.
5) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg Fringe is in it's finale season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expired. An example might be Supernatural if it’s two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc
6) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue
7) Shows with an Index over 2.75 are likely to be cancelled, 2.50-2.75 - in danger and less that 2.50 safe. Although shows nearer 2.50 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.
8) You can access this page via either the Start or Features Menu above or simply by Bookmarking it.

If you have any questions/suggestions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.

413 comments:

  1. You've got Fringe listed as the final season :( which is true but sad :( but it is not highlighted in the listing.

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  2. Wait, can we pretend that it's not the last season and it goes on forever? Please :)

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  3. Thanks, I'll make sure it's fixed for tomorrows update.

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  4. wow I didn't know TBBT and The Mentalist were already renewed! yay! :D

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  5. Seeing Fringe up there like that is just to depressing...its breaking my little heart. :(

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  6. So glad to see this back! One of my favourite sections of SpoilerTV!

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  7. Last season The Mentalist was renewed thru the 2013/2014 season.

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  8. I'll be sad to say goodbye to Fringe. I've been enjoying it.

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  9. Glad you like it. Hopefully it will be just as accurate as in past seasons.

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  10. "With the exception of Fringe, Whitney, and Terra Nova our table was pretty accurate."


    Glad you were right on Fringe. Not glad that you were wrong on Whitney. Forgot all about Terra Nova already.


    I will be following The Predictor (sounds like a big villain, like The Predator), thanks in advance for updating it !

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  11. Ha :)


    Yep, Whitney was both a surprise and a disappointment lol

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  12. i dont think its the last season of private practice but it is listed that way but they havent said that it is the last season

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  13. Thanks, you're correct. I'll make sure I update it for tomorrows update.

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  14. I'm so happy! :DDDD

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  15. I think it's a bit unfair to rate these if they have only had one episode....

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  16. wait.. its not the final season of private practice.. its just the final season for Kate Walsh...

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  17. Bunky, this is only for Network shows :)


    We track the other shows in stvplus.com and in our Show Status Report Spreadsheets that can be found in the Menus at the top.

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  18. how can Hawaii Five-0 be safer then Partners it only scored a 1.9 Demo lower then anything on CBS so far and lower then the average CBS A18-49 from last year an all-time low for the series it should be in the "Danger Zone" a 1.9 is terrible and dangerous number

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  19. correct but as far as we know is not the final season it wasnt announced as the final season if ratings do bad it could be

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  20. well its interesting to see where the rank after there premiere nd it will become more accurate after 3-4 weeks for example i dont buy for a second that Hawaii Five-0 is safe from cancellation with a 1.9 demo in danger is more like it so im hoping after 3-4 weeks it will tell us more accuracy

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  21. It clearly says in RED that this is NOT accurate but we have to start somewhere, and some shows are approaching 3-4 episodes.

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  22. If i'm not mistaken, yesterday was Partners Series Premier, so it's predictable that it's ratings will drop from last night... Also it doesn't have overall positive reviews.
    Five-0 is a well stablished show, i'm sure next week the ratings will be up... The same goes for Castle.
    Revolution is looking sharp, but since it's a serialized series it's hard to say after 15 episodes or so...(But, with the DVR now, people can catch up if they can't watch it one night. Neverless, i cross my fingers that it stays like that, modest viewers but a damm great demo. One must see if the show manages to make profits; 'cause it must be a hell of a expensive show to make... But awesome it is!)
    My Monday combo now it's going to be HIMYM, Castle(love the premier), Bones and Revolution. I'm planning on seeing Five-0, cause i heard great things about it.

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  23. A show in it's 3rd season is given a higher weighting. A show on it's pilot is given a low weighting as these tend to reduce by around 15-20% in their 2nd episode.


    As mentioned on the post the rating will not be accurate for 3-4 weeks

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  24. Well, it wasn't actually. One writer who was departing the show said that, but there was literally no confirmation about it anywhere and when asked CBS denied it. The writer then never spoke of it again. It's highly possible they've agreed something behind closed doors (no smoke without fire, as they say) but The Mentalist has not been officially picked up for next season.

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  25. You know when i heard about it it didn't make much sense to me at the time.It was announced around the same time they changed the day to Sunday night.I had a few heated arguments here about this.Why would CBS do this when they don't even do that for their #1 drama..NCIS. Thanks for the info cause i never heard another thing about it!

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  26. i know.. im just saying cuz it was marked as the final season on the chart..

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  27. @twitter-152337807:disqus Yep, we've fixed it now :)

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  28. this is going to be on my bookmark bar from now until summer. as was the last one.

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  29. so it isn't renewed yet? I'm confused... :/

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  30. When I click to make it bigger it still shows the old version (25th) even though the thumbnail version has NCIS etc on it :/

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  31. hey darkufo
    why havent you rateted tv shows like ncis or ncis la that have aired one episode

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  32. We have. Make sure your press F5 to refresh. It sounds like your seeing an old cached copy

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  33. oh thanks i see it now:)

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  34. jared and jensen dont want out , they singed a contract for if it gets picked up

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  35. Yes we know, it was an EXAMPLE.

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  36. Ha ha! Never tease the supernatural fandom even with an EXAMPLE.
    You know how defensive we can be about our underwear models bros and our awkward angel ;-D

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  37. Yes! My favorite thread is back! \o/

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  38. lol true true xx

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  39. lol kkl

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  40. The move to Sunday and the addition of Ivan Sergei concern me.

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  41. S*** the mob doctor is first in danger XD

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  42. Hah! Elementary is doing good so far. Every show experiences a loss of views after a pilot though so we'll see how it does next week. But suck it, haters!!

    Mind you, that comment is directed at those people who have an irrational hatred for this show only because it's not BBC's Sherlock. And it's definitely for those people who say the show is bad without ever having seen it.

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  43. darkufo
    i dont think unforgettable is going to be on this list since this is a summer show now but it is on the list now

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  44. Oh, how I wish Whitney had zero forever.

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  45. 0 would be very good. You want it to be over 3 :)

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  46. Haha, you are right, I was thinking about zero on the demo. In the cancellation predictor I wish Whitney a lovely 4 :)

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  47. Oh, how I missed this rainbow table of demise!

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  48. ohhh I'm so happy for Revolution, i really liked the pilot. And I'm also glad that the New Normal is looking safe for now, I'm still hoping for the full season pickup. When would they announce it?

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  49. After last night 666 Park avenue has to be among those on block for cancalation.

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  50. We don't have enough numbers yet. Please read the notes/info about how this is calculated.

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  51. Good going on Revolution Kripke, maybe another SPN

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  52. Why The Mentalist is not blue anymore (renewed)? Are you being cautious after the latest rating?

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  53. No, it was a mistake to have it in blue. It's not been renewed yet.

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  54. Well, true, the writer who said it (on twitter) is not longer on the show, but she may be an (executive) producer still...
    or maybe not. :/ lol!

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  55. Glee was already renewed for at least another season, acording to Ryan Murphy showrunner ,he said that in twitter

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  56. Do you have a link please Ruth

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  57. Can someone explaine me Castle's situation? I mean, i like the show, but how is that with it's ratings it has a 1.62 while a show like Five-0 is at 2.26? Is Castle such a cheap show that with those ratings is still very sustainable?

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  58. Also remember castle is in Season 5 and is in Syndication and is sold around the world.

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  59. Seeing NCIS down there makes me happy. At least one of my shows is completely stable.

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  60. Revolution looking good! Pity for Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue. I liked both of the pilots! Maybe those will improve with their second episodes.

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  61. Why pity Last Resort,its hasn't been canceled nor are the numbers bad.Give it a few episodes before dismissing it as dead in the water.

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  62. Hahaa "dead in the water"...cause it's a sub...haha. :)

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  63. I think in this table, the lower the points, better for the show, right? So, I believe at this moment, Castle isn't in danger...

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  64. Yes, the lower the number the better :)

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  65. Maybe I missed something, but why do you track shows that are renewed for multiple seasons or are ending?

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  66. This is really difficult to read I enlarged it and it was not being any better is there another side where I can read it ?

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  67. Just out of pure interest to see where they place in the overall table.

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  68. What do you mean another side? There is only 1 image. Just make sure you keep clicking on the image until it gets to maximum size.

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  69. Neighbors is lookingsafe... I lost any faith in humanity! They don't deserve to live; just throw them a Nokia 1100!

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  70. Remember we need to wait for all shows to air etc before we can get an accurate picture :)

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  71. Thank you! So I can follow my series and know how she is doing in relation to renewal!

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  72. Please don't cancel Made in new jersey and the mob doctor !

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  73. You should prepare yourself as they're gonna get cancelled, it's only a matter of time. The ratings for both keep dropping...

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  74. are abcfamily shows included in this.. i havent seen any yet.

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  75. No, just the main Broadcast Networks.

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  76. I think it's a bit too early, especially for Law and Order SVU since they just aired the first episode of season 14.

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  77. @google-4adaa60f2769db2b23075b5969911d02:disqus Read the text in Red :)

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  78. Why is Napolean Dyanamite still on here? I thought it was cancelled?

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  79. @twitter-257608032:disqus What about it?

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  80. @twitter-20828625:disqus Human Error. Will be fixed on next update

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  81. I have no doubt that Castle is going to be around for a Season 6! They seem to have an unending ability to produce fresh new episodes!

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  82. Made In Jersey was officially cancelled today.

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  83. What section was Made In Jersey before it got cancelled?

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  84. @facebook-100002067185953:disqus What do you mean? It's place in the table is where it's always been? Not sure I understand your questions, sorry.



    The table is sorted by our scoring system, we just add some colours to it to make it easier to read etc.

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  85. Well I was wondering which cancellation section it was in, but I see it was in the 'In Danger' section before its cancellation.

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  86. @facebook-100002067185953:disqus Yep, the shows once cancelled don't "move". Their Score/Index number will remain the same. That way we can see how accurate our scoring system is when we look back at it at the end of the season.

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  87. It's a rather clever system, most of which I don't understand....

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  88. Ha, don't worry, you're not alone lol


    Also see this more simpler "Alternative Scoring System"
    http://www.spoilertv.com/2012/10/the-alternative-spoilertv-tv-ratings.html

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  89. I've started to like Made in new jersey. Too bad :(

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  90. Gossip girl aired on Oct 8 and its on not aired

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  91. @twitter-257608032:disqus You must be looking at an old cached copy of the image.


    Click the image above and make sure your press CTRL-F5 to force a refresh. It should then show you the current table.

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  92. I sure hope and wish so! I love it:)

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  93. Good to see Last Resort is still in green...although it is close to yellow.

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  94. Happy to see tvd and batb safe :)

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  95. However, i am worried about partners.

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  96. do you think any of the network executives watch TV? I would love to see their reaction when their own favorite shows get cancelled..I wonder how that meeting goes, probably emotional lol

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  97. Ha that would be funny.

    What would be funnier if one of their sons/daughters loved a show that the executive was about to cancel. That would make for an interesting dinner conversation lol

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  98. we have a winner Made in New Jersey apparently u suck! and are cancelled Thanks for playing Fall 2012-2013 TV Challenge lol

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  99. Mom or dad would pay dearly for that,they would probably have to buy the kid a new Ferrari to make up for it,

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  100. I thought Made In Jersey was pulled, as in for good?

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  101. Looks like the shows that I watch are safe this year :) The only two that I watched last year that got cancelled were Ringer and Alcatraz. Ringer was brilliant but I think they did too much too soon and would struggle for a second season. Alcatraz was good too but again I don't know what they would have done for a second season.

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  102. *hoping that you have psychich powers*

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  103. Where is The Cleveland Show? I can't wait for this show to be cancelled.

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  104. It very rarely airs in a primetime slot ie 8-10 so we don't cover it here.

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  105. I can't quite believe Hawaii Five-0 is as high up as it is....

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  106. I thoght made in Jersey had been canceled? Must have been a dream.

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  107. nope I read it up above the comments it was canceled just not marks as so on the chart.

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  108. Hmm, you must have an old copy of the chart in your browsers cache. Click on the image again and press CTRL-F5 to force a refresh

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  109. Last Resort is looking safe? It gets very weak demos. And Nashville episode 2 did very poorly as well. Like you said it will take a while for the predictions to be more realistic I guess.

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  110. Didn't Suburgatory premiere last night? How come it's still at 0?

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  111. Oops, I'll make sure it's added in tomorrows update. :)

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  112. @twitter-321560143:disqus If you refresh now it should be there. I've just updated it

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  113. @twitter-20306628:disqus Yep, ideally we need 4 weeks work of data.


    Remember there are still nearly 30 shows that have not even aired yet and a lot of times the ratings are based on relation to how well other shows do on the same network etc.

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  114. Animal Practice has been put out of our misery!

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  115. Yep, we know :) We posted it earlier :)

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  116. Hey Dale seems we both have the same avatar,but i am asking you to please change yours.I have been using mine for over 4 years,and here at SpoilerTV for 19 months. I see you are new here,and if 2 pepole use the same avatar,the person who has it the longest usually gets to keep it..I would appreciate it,thank you.

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  117. Just want to ask a question. Do you not include 18-49 demo in this formula, given that this number is usually considered more important than actual viewer numbers?

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  118. @lucinders:disqus Hi, Yes we include the 18-49 demo as part of the viewing numbers along with other factors as per the notes.



    The 18-49 demo has a large weighting in the calculation of the score/index.

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  119. Thanks. I probably didn't see it earlier. BTW, I think you have a typo in note 4. I think the word is supposed to be "prediction" not "predication."

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  120. I thought this is last season for Private Practice. Not cancellation.

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  121. Update:-
    Suits, White Collar - Renewed
    Secret Life of the American Teenager - Cancelled

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  122. Hey does anyone know if TNT's Leverage is going to be renewed???
    Sarah x

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  123. No news yet. Check out Show Status Report for the latest updates


    http://www.spoilertv.com/2012/10/the-spoilertv-show-status-report.html

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  124. @twitter-95652957:disqus Those are not broadcast shows I'm afraid.

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  125. @lucinders:disqus Thanks, fixed.

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  126. Ohk! I Thought you did all at once.

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  127. Is it wrong how much I look forward to this every day?

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  128. Ha lol. It a pretty popular feature :)

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  129. Seriously, I've heard nothing but harsh criticism about Beauty and The Beast, how is it getting that rating? Are people whining about it and STILL watching it?

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  130. nellymendezcolon27 October 2012 at 18:54

    .....YESSSSSSS

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  131. No clue. Maybe because it got a 1.2 18-49 for the premier but ever since 0.7 and 0.6.

    Beauty and the Beast and Supernatural should be swapped and even then B&TB should be put in the yellow

    Supernatural 0.8,1.0,1.0,0.7
    B&TB 1.2,0.7,0.6

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  132. Beauty only got a 1.1 for the premier, it adjusted down in the finals

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  133. This is not readable. It's too small and if you enlarge it it's blur.

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  134. it got a 1.3 preliminary and was adjusted down to 1.2 according to tvbtn


    preliminary-http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/12/tv-ratings-thursday-the-big-bang-theory-falls-the-vampire-diaries-returns-up-beauty-the-beast-debuts-well-for-the-cw-vice-presidential-debate/152645/
    final- http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/12/thursday-final-ratings-the-big-bang-theory-and-two-and-a-half-men-adjusted-up-up-all-night-beauty-and-the-beast-and-30-rock-adjusted-down-no-adjustment-for-the-vampire-diaries/152647/

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  135. oh yes sorry I remembered after then forgot to change it in my post

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  136. You click on the table to open it in the photo viewer, then you click on it again to open it bigger, then from there you can click it one last time to zoom in. So click it three different times and you will see it better. I hope this helps. :)

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  137. Is Fairly Legal going to be renewed? I heard reports state the show almost didn't get a second season. I hope it comes back, the show was really interesting.

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  138. nellymendezcolon31 October 2012 at 18:03

    ...AGREE

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  139. I really hope that 666 Park Avenue won't be cancelled, The show is really good. And I mean, this is Vanessa Williams, for God's Sake! It would be a terrible crime to cancel the show!

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  140. God bless Castle! I want to see it every year:)

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  141. Scandal should be bolded it got approved for full season pickup. Thank god.

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  142. hey @google-c5977b3e4ec41c1a81c74994629ba0b5:disqus We actually only bold New Shows in their first season that get picked up.

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  143. I love up all night, I hope could avoid cancellation *-*

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  144. Ooooh, Partners moved to the Orange (Likely to be Cancelled) Zone. I hope you get it wrong for the show, I am really enjoying it, so far

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  145. Been having a glance at the older tables, and looking at a few of my shows. Things like:
    Nikita: 2010-2011 with 2.22, 2011-2012 with 2.55. Currently 2.71. This isn't going to survive very long. It was a 'bubble' show last year, and this year is struggling for 1 million viewers a week.
    Hawaii Five-0: 2010-2011 with 1.41, 2011-2012 with 1.72. Currently 2.23. This is tricky. I don't understand why it has gone up so much. I was rather hoping for H50 to last a long time, but I fear it won't last past Season 4.
    Then I come along to NCIS. 2010-2011 with 0.93, 2011-2012 with 1.29. Currently 1.26. How is it that NCIS is just as good as the other two shows, but is so much LESS likely to get cancelled? I understand the whole 'it's been running ages' thing, but that's because viewers actually gave it a chance?

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  146. Oh my! Castle's index keeps increasing. Kinda worried.

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  147. Yeah I don't understand how Beauty is less likely to be cancelled than Supernatual. Supernatural's ratings are better and it's in it's season, so is basically guaranteed the same numbers each week. Beauty is in it's first season, and if you can't get people to watch it then, well whose going to watch a second season.

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  148. The Cleveland Show is not listed on the table.

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  149. Yep, it rarely airs during the 8-10 Primetime so we can't calculate it's ratings accurately.

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  150. The ratings for Nikita are truly unfortunate and undeserving. It's an incredible show.

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  151. I don't care about Emily Owens, I just hope The Mindy Project isn't cancelled

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  152. Syndication is right at its doorstep. Do you know about syndication its the golden goose of tv. Nikita is likely getting a 4th season

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  153. "Whitney enters the table and goes straight into the "In Danger Zone"." Wow, NBC, yeah, choosing Whitney over Community to replace Animal Practice was *SOOOO* the right choice to make!

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  154. Time to add GCB on the list.

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  155. Hi DarkUFO ! What's your opinion concerning CSI Vegas ? Are you optimistic for a season 14 ? :) Thanks !

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  156. Hey Bryan. Well look at the table and make your own opinion :) Looks pretty safe to me ratings wise. So as long as the cast/crew/writers and producers want to do another season it should be fine.

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  157. Last Resort! G*D DA**IT!!

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  158. why do you guys not take syndication into account a 3rd season show that has been renewed for a full season is most likely getting a 4th season for syndication purposes. Nikita is right at the doorstep to the golden goose of tv. Why would CW cancel a show that is so close to that when they have no idea if any of their shows will ever get that far again

    check this out: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/11/13/cw-why-do-the-secret-circle-fans-hate-the-beauty-the-beast-poll/157081/


    Would like to know if you only go by ratings but it should not be so with a show that has been renewed for a full 3rd season.

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  159. I know you are not including the Cleveland Show on the iist..... but can you confirm this show is cancelled or renewed? This show can be easily named is the worst show on FOX sunday.

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  160. No decisions on The Cleveland show yet, although it's more than likely to be renewed

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  161. We do take syndication into account. Nikita would be even lower if we didn't.

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  162. bummer on the 2 new medical shows. I enjoy both of them.

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  163. Anyone else not getting the updated table? Mine seems to be stuck on the 17th of November one.

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  164. That worked. Thanks :-)

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  165. Awesome :) Basically it clears the cache out of any old copies of the chart.

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  166. Given that 18-49 advertising demo is actually more important than viewing numbers, do you weigh that more heavily than viewing numbers in your calculation? Just curious.

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  167. @lucinders:disqus Yep, we certainly do give it a larger weighting. You may also be interested in this simpler alternative table that just users the 18-49 as the main weighting

    http://www.spoilertv.com/2012/10/the-alternative-spoilertv-tv-ratings.html

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  168. Wouldn't Private Practice go under Final season more than under cancellation as it was likely to be its final season

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  169. 04ikhan Not by our definition :). The Season had already started before they announced it would be the last. Just like any other cancelled shows.

    Shows marked as ending where announced as such before their current season started.

    Hope that makes sense.

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  170. Emily Owens got nominated for the People's Choice Award, and they are really cancelling it? I don't get it.

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  171. Moonlight WON the best new drama and CBS cancelled it. PCA means nothing in the real world. Just hits to their page and last year they did not even show the award for Best Drama because Supernatural won it and Best Syfy series.

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  172. With this new update it looks like 666 Park Avenue is improving a bit, it's still not good, but getting better. It sucks that ABC didn't wait a little longer before canceling it.

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  173. they waiting more than long enough

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  174. what's not to understand?


    Bad ratings=cancellation

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  175. Don't forget these awards don't mean all that much.If it was one vote per person that is a different story but to be able to vote repeatedly how fair is that? If you get the famdom of a particular show and they vote everyday that show has a good chance of being nominated. But it doesn't mean its a good show and deserves the award. Ratings and a show getting nominated have nothing to do with keeping a show on the air.

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  176. Castle jump to 2,29 ?!?! seriously? isn't it too much?

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  177. Well that's what the calculations come to.

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  178. ok again The Mob Doctor is under cancelled shows why again since it hasn't been officialy cancelled by Fox????

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  179. It has. They are burning off the episodes

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  180. Wasn't Glee renewed?

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  181. i just love this post and hey im comment nr 200:))) lol

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  182. curiosity- why is Private Practice coded as cancelled instead of final season?

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